SEC Media Days are officially in the rearview mirror, which means all 14 fanbases in the conference turn their attention to Labor Day weekend (except for Vanderbilt who hosts Hawaii in Week Zero). This will be the final go around for the SEC as we currently know it, before Texas and Oklahoma become members and the conference enters a massive TV deal exclusively with ESPN/ABC.
2023 will see the end of divisions in the Southeastern Conference, which determined the participants in the SEC Championship Game for over three decades.
Mizzou was predicted to finish sixth in the SEC East’s final season at Media Days and have largely flown under the radar nationally. I personally predicted Missouri to finish fourth in the division for my ballot, but the rest of the media collectively are not as high on the Tigers as I am. This was not surprising to me as many fans and pundits have slotted Mizzou 13th out of 14 in the conference over the years, better than Vandy but a step behind the middle of the pack.
However, a deeper dive shows that Mizzou has the potential to surprise a lot of people this fall. We are now entering year four of the Eli Drinkwitz era and there is pressure to improve off of a 17-19 start to his tenure in Columbia.
Before getting into 2023, we have to look at the first three years under Drink leading up to this fall. While Mizzou has by no means been a dumpster fire over these past few seasons, they have not exactly been inspiring either. The Tigers have qualified for bowl games in each of Drinkwitz’s first three seasons, but that is the extent of on field success Mizzou fans have seen in that timespan.
The program has not had a winning season since 2018 and their last bowl win came all the way back in 2014. With all of that being said, this season provides an opportunity to end both of those respective droughts.
When Drinkwitz took over back in 2020, the program was very much a work in progress, both on the field and in recruiting. This is why many fans gave the former App State head coach a long leash because he took over a program that finished 13th in SEC recruiting every cycle under Barry Odom.
While the results have not seen a noticeable increase, the recruiting classes have. Mizzou has recruited at a top 25 level on average over the past three cycles including the 2022 class which ranked 15th nationally, The Tigers have also been active in the transfer portal in the past couple offseasons, giving Drinkwitz his best team on paper.
There are no more Barry Odom related excuses for Mizzou this year, Drinkwitz has gotten all his guys in the building whether it be through recruiting or the portal. Another reason the Tigers should improve in 2023 is their coaching staff, namely the two coordinators.
After the offense was frustratingly inefficient last season, Drinkwitz relinquished control for the first time in his head coaching career. Mizzou brought in Fresno State offensive coordinator Kirby Moore to right the ship.
The biggest problem with Missouri’s offense in 2022 was the inability to get receivers in space, which led to a struggling passing attack that did not scare defenses downfield. Moore’s offenses at Fresno State excelled at getting guys open on the perimeter. The Tigers’ WR room returns Luther Burden, Mookie Cooper and Mekhi Miller along with adding former five-star recruit Theo Wease in the portal. The personnel is in place, Mizzou just needs an offense designed to maximize its potential on the perimeter.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Tigers bring back Blake Baker at defensive coordinator after a stellar first season. It took a few years, but Drinkwitz appears to have found the right guy to run his defense.
Baker’s unit is top ten in the nation in returning production with many key pieces coming back including Ty’Ron Hopper, Darius Robinson, Kris Abrams-Draine and Ennis Rakestraw. Mizzou was 34th in total defense last season and they should only get better in year two under Baker.
I have little doubt that the defense will be a formidable unit this fall, but what will determine how far Mizzou can go is their offense. The Tigers infamously lost four one-possession games a year ago for a multitude of reasons. However there was one common theme in all four games, the defense held their own but the Tigers couldn’t capitalize offensively.
In losses to Auburn, Florida and Kentucky, the defense held the opposition to 17, 17 and 21 points respectively. Against Georgia, the defense held one of the best offenses in America to 12 points through three quarters before letting up a double digit lead. If Mizzou had just average offensive production, they win at least three of these games.
I already mentioned the change at offensive coordinator, however that was not the only culprit for the offense’s underwhelming 2022. All of the Tigers’ offensive woes can be traced to the offensive line play which was subpar a year ago.
The rushing attack was predictably weaker after losing Tyler Badie, however I am not sure how well it would have fared even if the Tigers still had the Doak Walker finalist. The one bright spot on the line was left tackle Javon Foster who quietly was one of the best at his position last fall.
Foster returns in 2023 on what should be an improved unit. Mizzou addressed their offensive line concerns via the transfer portal by adding a pair of four-stars that should make an immediate impact. On the interior, the Tigers’ bring in Houston transfer Cam’Ron Johnson who is expected to start at center. Opposite of Foster, Mizzou adds Marcellus Johnson at right tackle who impressed in his four seasons with Eastern Michigan.
The backfield will look familiar with Cody Schrader and Nathaniel Peat coming back along with redshirt freshman Tavorus Jones who should see an increase in touches this fall. Jones in particular is a guy to watch for as he may be the most talented player in the running back stable.
Even with the improvements made on the offensive side of the ball, this season still largely hinges on what production the Tigers get from under center. Since Drew Lock left, Mizzou has had a revolving door of mediocrity at the position. If the Tigers want to break through and exceed preseason expectations, they need more out of their signal caller.
We still are not 100% sure who will be QB1 this fall, but based off Drinkwitz’s comments at SEC Media Days, it sounds like Brady Cook is the frontrunner. Drinkwitz said that Cook is going to have to get beat out for the job, indicating that he is holding down the starting spot.
Cook had a fairly pedestrian 2022 but did show signs of improvement down the stretch. It’s worth noting that Cook suffered a torn labrum early in the year against Kansas State which likely impacted him as a passer. Now Cook is healthy and in a more quarterback friendly offense with better protection and perimeter weapons.
Logically speaking, Cook should improve, however if he does not, Mizzou has other options available. Cook did not have much competition in the QB room this time last year and was named the starter early on in fall camp.
That will not be the case this go around as Cook will have to fend off Miami transfer Jake Garcia and redshirt freshman Sam Horn. Regardless of who wins the starting job, the Tigers should have noticeably better QB play in 2023.
When previewing any team’s season(especially in the SEC), you have to look at their schedule. For the Tigers, the schedule gives them an opportunity to get off to a hot start.
Mizzou has struggled out of the gate in each of the past two seasons, sitting at 2-4 at the halfway point of the regular season. These slow starts leave the fanbase just hoping to salvage their season with a bowl. To the Tigers’ credit, they were able to bounce back and make the postseason both years.
In 2023 however, the Tigers have a very manageable first half. They host FCS South Dakota in their opener on a Thursday night and follow that up with a home matchup against Middle Tennessee. Not only does this give Mizzou an easy path to 2-0, it also allows Drinkwitz to get a look at all three quarterbacks if the job is not won in fall camp.
After what *should* be two easy wins, the Tigers host the reigning Big 12 champion Kansas State. The Wildcats drubbed Mizzou 40-12 in Manhattan last year, so this game at Faurot Field will be a good opportunity for revenge. Of Missouri’s first five games, this will be the only one they are an underdog in.
After a three game home stretch, the Tigers have a neutral site matchup in St. Louis against Memphis before kicking off conference play at Vandy. Mizzou should be no worse than 4-1 when LSU comes to town in early October.
Getting off to a fast start gives the fanbase a reason to believe that the team can accomplish more than just being bowl eligible. If Mizzou is sitting at 4-2 or even 5-1 at the halfway point, we will be talking about the Tigers as a team that can push for eight or maybe even nine wins.
Another benefit to Mizzou’s 2023 schedule is having a lot of go either way games at home. Despite the result last year, Kansas State is a very winnable matchup. The Tigers also get South Carolina and Florida at home, both games that should have single digit point spreads.
The Tigers also catch LSU and Tennessee (both at home I might add) at opportunistic points in the season. LSU’s matchup against Mizzou is the week after a difficult road trip to Ole Miss and the week before a rivalry game against Auburn. Mizzou will also be coming off of a fairly easy five game stretch to start their season.
As for Tennessee, the Tigers catch the Vols in the ultimate look ahead spot. It’s no secret that Josh Heupel has had Mizzou’s number in his first two years in Knoxville. The former Mizzou OC has dropped 62 and 66 respectively on the Tigers’ defense in their first two matchups.
The reason I have this game on my upset radar is the fact that Tennessee hosts Georgia the week after they travel to Faurot. Georgia is their game of the year and a must win for their SEC (and likely CFP) hopes.
Mizzou has not challenged Tennessee lately, so there is a very real chance the Vols are caught looking ahead. We saw this with Georgia last year, they had not been challenged by Missouri in recent years and were caught off guard and nearly lost their perfect season in the process.
Am I saying that Mizzou will beat LSU and Tennessee? No, but crazier things have happened and I would not be that shocked if Mizzou managed to steal one of these games.
On paper, there is plenty of reason to believe that Mizzou can be the darkhorse team of the SEC this year. A stout defense that brings nearly everyone back, improvements made on the offensive side of the ball and a workable schedule makes me cautiously optimistic for the Tigers entering 2023.
All the reasons I just listed are why Coach Drinkwitz is facing immense pressure to get better results on the field. Would I go as far to say Drink is on the hot seat? Not necessarily, however he probably needs to win at least seven games to ensure his job is safe.
Mizzou’s over/under win total is hanging around 6 to 6.5 depending on where you look. I personally see the Tigers going 7-5 this year, which would be their best mark since 2018 and give them an opportunity to win a bowl for the first time since Gary Pinkel was on the sidelines.
I understand that record is not the end-all be-all when evaluating a team’s performance, but the Tigers really need to show some improvement in the win column. While Mizzou was much more competitive in their losses last year than they were in 2021, at some point these close losses need to be flipped into close wins.
While seven wins is my benchmark for the team, I would like to see them get eight or nine wins, which I believe they are fully capable of. Improving on field results will show in recruiting and help the Tigers lockdown a strong 2024 class.
Mizzou has been building towards a season like this ever since Drinkwitz was hired. Everything from recruiting to facility enhancements to coaching staff upgrades have all been done in an effort to ascend above mediocrity.
How the Tigers perform this upcoming fall will be vital in determining the future of Eli Drinkwitz and the trajectory of the program entering a new age in the Southeastern Conference.