It’s that time of the year again, baseball fans; the moment we’ve waited 162 (or, if you’re a Marlins fan, 161 and 8/9) games for. The 2023 MLB Playoffs are here, and start on Tuesday, Oct. 3. We’ve got a lot to break down, including some new faces, one cold streak, and a litany of questions about how these playoffs are going to look. At the end, I’ll break down each Wild-Card series and give my predictions.
What’s up with the Pitch Clock?
We’ll start out in September 2022, when commissioner Rob Manfred introduced the new rules for the 2023 season, which included expanding the bases, only allowing two disengagements per batter, and banning the shift. However, the most important thing he introduced was the pitch clock. Pitchers now have only 15 seconds to throw the ball with the bases empty, and 20 seconds with a runner on. This rule has drastically shortened the length of games, from 3 hours and 6 minutes in 2022 to 2 hours and 42 minutes in 2023 (via statista.com).
Pitchers are now forced to make high-pressure decisions in shorter amounts of time. In the postseason when every pitch matters so much more, I predict that the amount of pitch-clock violations will increase, and start a controversy of whether or not it should even be used in the playoffs. I know most fans don’t want a crucial playoff game to come down to a pitcher not throwing the ball in time, and we’ll see if that scenario plays itself out this postseason.
Is the Stolen Base Back?
This year’s season also saw the re-emergence of the stolen base, even dubbed “The Year of Stolen Bases” by themessenger.com. Helped slightly by the new pickoff rules and slightly larger bases, speedsters such as Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna and Oakland’s Esteury Ruiz put up mammoth numbers of swipes. Acuna had the first 40 home run/70 stolen base season the league has ever seen, and Ruiz put up 67 steals of his own. In total, six players this year beat out last year’s stolen base leader Jon Berti’s 41.
Clearly, thievery is going to play a large role this postseason, where many games are won by one or two runs. I’m interested to see if steals become even more of a factor than in the regular season.
The Kids Made it Home
The story of this year’s playoffs is undoubtedly the Baltimore Orioles. Their preseason odds to make the playoffs stood at a measly 10.4% according to Fangraphs. However, that didn’t stop them from barreling their way to 101 wins and the first overall seed in this year’s playoff bracket. Led by young superstars such as catcher Adley Rutschman, shortstop Gunnar Henderson, and first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, the O’s are the second-youngest team in the playoffs, only behind the Phillies. Orioles fans have been waiting for the fountain of youth to pay off, and now we’ll see if they can hang with the vets in the Divisional round.
Baltimore’s pitching staff isn’t too shabby, either. They had a breakout performance from starting pitcher Kyle Bradish, whose ERA of 2.83 ranks fourth in all of baseball. They did suffer a large blow in losing all-world closer Felix Bautista, who had a 1.44 ERA and 33 saves when he was injured on August 26. Dean Kremer and John Means are two more starters who are expected to be big pieces for their postseason run.
Dodgers Keepin’ it Rolling
Man, they do it every year, don’t they? The Dodgers, I mean. When was the last time they actually missed the playoffs? That would be back in 2012, when their roster featured guys like Tony Gwynn (no, not that Tony Gwynn. That would have been cool though) and Shane Victorino. If you can’t remember watching a playoffs without the Dodgers, you’re not alone. They have the longest active playoff streak in any of the 4 major North American leagues (NHL, NBA, and NFL).
This year, they’re getting MVP-level play from both Freddie Freeman, who was one double away from a 30-homer/60-double season, and Mookie Betts, whose .987 OPS is third in the NL. Neither of those guys are actually going to win the MVP, due to Acuna’s historic season, but to have two top vote-getters for MVP in one lineup is scary.
Clayton Kershaw is still doing his thing at the ripe old age of 35 years, and his 2.46 ERA would rank second in the league if he threw enough innings to qualify. Rookie starter Bobby Miller also broke onto the scene this year, featuring a dominating fastball. The rest of their staff has major question marks, however. In-season addition Lance Lynn was brought over from the White Sox to fix their starting pitching woes, but he hasn’t done enough if they want to compete with the Braves in the playoffs.
Toronto (6) at Minnesota (3)
The Minnesota Twins were this year’s beneficiary of the ‘Someone has to win this’ division of the AL Central. The 5 teams combined for a winning percentage of 44%, good for the worst in baseball.
Now, let’s address the elephant in the room. As you may know, the Twins have not fared very well in the playoffs recently, although they have gone to them a fair share of times. Since 2003, they have been to the playoffs a respectable seven times, and after taking a 1-0 lead in the 2004 playoffs against the Yankees, have played 18 playoff games. Guess how many they’ve won?
Surely, they’ve won at least a few of those, right?
Nope.
They’ve lost their last 18 playoff games IN A ROW, the longest drought in North American sports history. The odds of this happening, given they had an 50% chance to win each game (this is not necessarily the case, we are using this assumption for modeling purposes), is approximately .000003, or 1 in 280,000. We are witnessing an unprecedented amount of postseason futility.
Moving onto the actual baseball. The Twins have a very balanced team, ranking 10th in runs scored and 6th in runs allowed. The strength of this team is starting pitching, led by Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez. Gray ranks third in the league in ERA, and Lopez has also put together a solid season after coming over from Miami in the deal involving Luis Arraez. The Twins lineup is spearheaded by an unlikely source, rookie third baseman Royce Lewis, who sports an impressive .920 OPS through 58 games. However, Lewis was recently placed on the 10-day IL with a hamstring injury. Veterans Carlos Correa and Max Kepler will have to step up in his place. It has not been a great season for Correa, but he always seems to shine when the lights are brighter.
The Blue Jays are back in the playoffs for the second straight season after losing in horrendous fashion last year, choking Game 2 against the Mariners after leading 8-1. Unlike the past few years, pitching also has carried the Jays this year. Kevin Gausman leads their staff with a 3.16 ERA, and with supplementary starters Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt, the Jays have what it takes to win a deep series against anyone. Offensively, star DH Vlad Guerrero Jr. and 2022 hits leader Bo Bichette continue to do most of the damage. Third baseman Matt Chapman has struggled mightily this season, but is still dangerous. If Guerrero and Chapman can both get hot, watch out.
I think Toronto’s offense is just going to be too much for the Twins to handle, but the Twins battle and end their losing streak.
Prediction: Toronto over Minnesota (2-1)
Rangers (5) at Tampa Bay (4)
This should be the most explosive matchup of the wild-card round.. Unlike the classic Rays teams under manager Kevin Cash, this year’s team is all about the offense. They’ve scored more runs than every other AL team aside from, you guessed it, the Rangers. These games might be in the double digits, with offenses led by Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, and Isaac Parades. The Rangers can counter with a cast of stars, including Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia. The Rays have been decimated on the mound this season, sustaining injuries to star Shane McClanahan, along with Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs, and Shane Baz. The only reason the Rays are still in this position is due to their front office’s ability to get the most out of unlikely sources, including Zach Eflin.
The Rangers have also lost a ton of pitching to injuries, including both Jacob DeGrom and Max Scherzer. Jordan Montgomery and Dane Dunning seem to be in line to start the first two games for Texas, and they’ve both had solid seasons.
In the end, the Rangers’ stars on offense are going to power them past the Rays in a close series.
Prediction: Texas over Tampa Bay (2-1)
Moving onto the NL, we’ve got the reigning pennant-winning Phillies up first.
Miami (5) at Philadelphia (4)
From what I see going into this series, it should not be very close. The Marlins only made the playoffs in the first place because of a September collapse from the Cubs, and have the worst run differential of any playoff team at -51. They’ve only scored more runs than 4 teams in the entire league, and their pitching staff, led by rookie Eury Perez, is mediocre at best. However, starter Sandy Alcantara is still a weapon at their disposal, and certainly gives them a chance when he’s on the mound. The offense, while still below-average, has improved after a midseason move for third baseman Jake Burger. All-star second baseman Luis Arraez will continue to be the focal point of their offense, and fans including myself will enjoy getting to see him work on this stage.
All that being said, the Phillies are simply a much better team. Their offense is basically the same as last season, with stars Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto leading the offense. Shortstop Trea Turner had a rough start to the season, even being booed by Phillies fans (although that shouldn’t be a surprise). In the last two months, he has turned everything around and is back to World Baseball Classic form. The pitching staff, led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, is still set up nicely for the playoffs.
If this series is at all close, it would be disappointing for the Phillies and their fans. I think Bryce Harper steps up here and has a huge series.
Prediction: Philadelphia over Miami (2-0)
Arizona (6) at Milwaukee (3)
Out of all four of these wild-card series, this is the one I’m the most interested in. We all know what Milwaukee’s M.O. is. They want to ride their starting pitchers, including Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes. All-star Brandon Woodruff is out for this series, so Wade Miley is going to have to replace him. Their offense just has to be average for them to have a great chance to win this series, but with Christian Yelich playing at a high level again and William Contreras being one of the best hitting catchers in the league, they can do more than that. The rest of their lineup is filled with a few rookies, and we’ll see if they can step up in the playoffs.
The Diamondbacks are led by a high-powered offense and star Zac Gallen. After him, the starters are very questionable. Rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll has been a walking highlight reel this whole season, and will run away with rookie of the year honors. Behind him, veterans Ketel Marte and Christian Walker are both having solid seasons.
If the Brewers can get into the D-Backs’ bullpen, this could get scary for Arizona. However, in a short 3-game series, I’ll give the edge to the Snakes’ offense, especially with Woodruff out.
Prediction: Arizona over Milwaukee (2-1)
Want to argue with my picks? Have a question? Email me at: [email protected]