The Cincinnati Reds were good last year, the Chicago Cubs had a chance to win the division and the St. Louis Cardinals were 10 games under .500. Yes, you read that right.
The 2023 National League Central turned into one of the most competitive divisions in baseball and created a race for the playoffs where eventually only one team made the dance.
The division will look a little different this year with big name stars heading to greener pastures or longtime greats leaving the division.
Team Previews
Milwaukee Brewers 2023 record: 92-70
The Brewers finished with the worst division leading record in the National League last season and that has led to some changes to the 2024 squad. The rebuild has started.
Key departures
The Brewers shipped 2021 Cy Young Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles for a return we’ll get into later.
Burnes went 10-8 last year with a 3.39 ERA, 127 ERA+, 1.055 WHIP and a 9.3 K/9. The Brewers are essentially losing their ace and have no qualified pitcher to take Burnes’ spot.
Rowdy Tellez signed a one-year deal worth $3.2 million with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Tellez had a down year for Milwuakee in 2023, only hitting .215. However, Tellez has hit in the mid .200s in the past, while also blasting 35 homeruns in 2022.
Key Additions
As apart of the Burnes trade, the Brewers received DL Hall from the Orioles.
Hall is young in his MLB career with only 29 games under his belt in 2022 and 2023. In his 33 innings, Hall has a ERA+ of 94.
The Brewers added Rhys Hoskins on a two-year $34 million deal this offseason.
Hoskins spent the first six years of his career in Philadelphia where he hit over .245 in every season but one. He also led the league in walks in 2019 with 116.
Prognosis
This team is going to struggle with pitching, losing guys like Burnes and Brandon Woodruff at the top of the rotation will simply not just play itself out.
Fangraphs projects the Brewers as finishing third in the NL Central with 81 wins. I see them somewhere around this win total but leaning more under .500 and fourth in the division.
Chicago Cubs 2023 record: 83-79
The Cubs benefited from short-term deals last year with Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman.
Key Departures
Marcus Stroman was able to provide the Cubs with two good years on the bump.
Stroman had a sub four ERA in both years and 119 strikeouts in both years.
Cody Bellinger has not signed with another team just yet and there is still a good chance he returns to the Northside of Chicago.
Bellinger finished 10th in MVP voting in 2023, batting .307 with an on base percentage of .356 and hit 26 homeruns with 97 RBIs.
Key Additions
The Cubs signed 29 year-old Shota Imanaga out of Japan to a four-year $53 million contract.
Imanaga has played eight seasons across the Japanese Central League, Japanese Eastern League and the Australian Baseball League where he has a career ERA of 2.96.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is not exactly new to the Cubs, but he should have a full season.
In 2023, Crow-Armstrong appeared in 13 games for the Cubs and is yet to record a hit, however he recorded three walks and two stolen bases.
Prognosis
Do not be surprised if the Cubs are leading the division throughout parts of this year, especially if they resign Bellinger. Fangraphs projects 81.4 wins for the Cubs in 2024 and finishing 2nd in the division. I see them as similar although possibly third place in the NL Central fits them best.
Cincinnati Reds 2023 record: 82-80
Similar to the Baltimore Orioles, the Reds graduated a lot of prospects throughout 2023 that propelled them into the positives. Unline the Orioles, the Reds did not win 101 games and make the playoffs.
Key Additions
The Reds major additions this offseason focused on pitching with Frankie Montas, Brent Suter and Emilio Pagán. They also added Jeimer Candelario.
Montas has pitched nine games in the last two seasons, but has had seasons with sub four ERAs in the past.
Suter returns to the NL Central after a one-year stint in Colorado. In 2023, Suter appeared in 57 games with just under 70 innings pitched and a ERA of 3.38.
Pagán cashed in on last season signing a $16 million deal for two years with the Reds. Pagán was on the mound for 69.1 innings last season posting a 2.99 ERA, his second lowest in his career.
Candelario and the Reds reached a three-year $45 million deal in the offseason. Candelario spent 2023 with the Nationals and the Cubs posting a .251 batting average and 22 homeruns.
Key Departures
Joey Votto will not be returning to the Reds this season after 17 years with the team.
While 2020s Votto was not the same as 2010s Votto, a veteran leader in a clubhouse of young, freshly graduated prospects can do wonders.
Prognosis
Similar to the others, Fangraphs has the Reds at 80.2 wins and fourth in the division. This is where I disagree with the projections, I believe the Reds are poised to put up bigger and better numbers in 2024. I can see them as second place in the division with just a few more wins.
Pittsburgh Pirates 2023 record: 76-86
The Pirates finished fourth in the division for the second straight year, but on the brightside finished ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals for the first time since 1999.
Key Additions
The Pirates added three major additions during the offseason including Martin Perez, Rowdy Tellez and Aroldis Chapman.
Martín Pérez won the World Series last year with the Texas Rangers after posting a 4.45 ERA.
Former Brewer Rowdy Tellez joins the Pirates this year. He had a disappointing year last season, but has a chance to improve on a team that could use it.
Aroldis Chapman joins another team that will probably trade him to a contender at the deadline.
Key Departures
There are no key departures.
Prognosis
Fangraphs projects the Pirates at 77.8 wins and last in the NL Central this season. I see this as somewhat accurate, I do not believe they reach 77 wins this year however. I would expect the Pirates to be near 72 wins.
St. Louis Cardinals 2023 Record: 71-91
Key Additions
Although the jokes have been on the St. Louis Cardinals about bringing in a lot of older players, they have added significant pitching help in Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Sonny Gray.
Kyle Gibson had a 4.73 ERA with the Baltimore Orioles last year. In 11 years in the league, he has over 1500 innings pitched.
Lance Lynn, who’s finished top five in Cy Young voting three different times, returns to the Cardinals after seven years with different teams. He has a career ERA of 3.74.
Sonny Gray is the biggest addition for the Cardinals. In 2023, he posted a 2.79 ERA and a league low 0.4 HR/9.
Key Departures
Paul DeJong is now a White Sox. Replacing DeJong will be Masyn Winn at shortstop. DeJong was traded part way through 2023 to the Toronto Blue Jays and then to the San Francisco Giants.
Prognosis
Fangraphs projects the Cardinals to win the NL Central with 84 wins. The 84 win mark seems realistic, give or take a few wins here and there, I also believe the Cardinals will win the NL Central this year with a revamped rotation.
For an in-depth analysis with Adam Busack, Kaitlyn Phee, and myself tune into to 88.1 FM in Columbia at 11 a.m. on Friday morning, or click the play button at the top of this page.