Another season of the NFL is in the books, with the Kansas City Chiefs yet again hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. While many sports fans now turn their attention to the NBA or MLB, others like myself begin to focus on the offseason.
While free agency and the draft are still a ways away, the head coaching cycle has wrapped up. Eight franchises opted for a change in leadership after the 2023 season in hopes of righting the ship.
Optimism is always in the air when a team hires a new head coach, however history shows that the majority of hires won’t lead to sustained success. A quarter of the league is replacing its coach, and that’s not out of the ordinary.
There’s a reason several jobs often open in January; finding the right coach is really hard. Even when you find the right guy, there’s a strong chance things will eventually unravel and you find yourself starting from scratch.
New England was in that position and parted ways with Bill Belichick. Not even the greatest coach ever is safe in an ever changing league. It was expected that the six-time Super Bowl champion would find another gig this cycle, however that wasn’t the case.
For the first time since 1999, Belichick will not be a head coach entering the season. The reasoning behind Belichick getting a job isn’t known. Maybe he wanted more control than any team was willing to give him? Maybe Belichick wasn’t enamored with any of the openings?
I have a hard time believing no team wanted Belichick, and I expect him to return to the sidelines in a year or two. Philadelphia and Dallas chose to retain their respective head coaches, however both face immense pressure entering 2024.
If one or both teams underperform, I wouldn’t be shocked if they make a run at Belichick next January.
As for the eight hires that were made, they range from excellent to questionable at best. None of the hires were inherently terrible, but some definitely made more sense than others.
1. Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers- Leading off this list with a guy that just won the National Championship shouldn’t be much of a surprise. Harbaugh has succeeded everywhere he coached, and his return to the pros felt inevitable.
Harbaugh is one of the few college coaches that made the seamless transition to the NFL when he went 44-19-1 with San Francisco en route to three NFC Championship appearances and a trip to Super Bowl XLVII.
If there’s one thing to expect with a Harbaugh-led squad, it’s physicality. LA has been woeful defensively in the Justin Herbert era.
Residing in the same division as the back-to-back champs isn’t ideal, however Harbaugh has his best QB since Andrew Luck at Stanford and a playoff-caliber roster.
I have no doubt this pairing will succeed to some extent, it’s just a question of how far Harbaugh and Herbert can take a franchise that has underachieved more than any other over the past 20 years.
2. Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers- In my opinion, this is the best hire that no one is talking about. Carolina is in no man’s land after an atrocious 2-15 campaign that saw David Tepper fire his head coach midseason for the second year in a row.
Not having a first round pick further complicates things and Canales will certainly have his work cut out for him. The fate of this franchise falls on the shoulders of 2023 first overall pick Bryce Young, who struggled immensely as a rookie.
I still have faith in Young and feel much better about his future after this hire. Canales played a big role in the revival of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield’s careers, and he has a QB-centric background.
Young is undersized, however Canales has worked with smaller QBs in Russell Wilson and Mayfield in the past.
If the Panthers can upgrade their weapons and offensive line in the offseason, they can be what the Texans were this season.
3. Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans- Mike Vrabel’s departure from Nashville caught much of the fanbase off guard after a fairly successful tenure with the Titans. Vrabel’s replacement is a solid hire in Brian Callahan.
Callahan has spent five seasons as the offensive coordinator for Cincinnati, overseeing the development of Joe Burrow. Tennessee appears to be banking its long term ambitions on Will Levis who showed flashes in his rookie year.
Callahan’s background is with QBs, as he spent three seasons as a quarterbacks coach before his time with the Bengals.
Star running back Derrick Henry is likely gone along with Ryan Tannehill. This roster will rebuild in an increasingly competitive AFC South. It will take time to fix the offensive line and find weapons outside of a 31-year-old DeAndre Hopkins.
I don’t expect this to be a quick turnaround, however if given time I believe Callahan and Levis will get the Titans back into playoff contention.
4. Mike McDonald, Seattle Seahawks- The last remnant of the glory days in Seattle is gone with Pete Carroll moving upstairs after a successful 14-year coaching tenure that saw the franchise win its first Super Bowl in franchise history.
His successor is a fellow defensive mind in Mike McDonald, who has spent three seasons as a defensive coordinator with Michigan and the Ravens.
After helping revive Michigan football, McDonald’s unit performed well in Baltimore in his two seasons. The Ravens had the number one scoring defense in 2023 and held the Chiefs to 17 points in the AFC Championship.
Seattle’s defense has noticeably regressed since the days of the “Legion of Boom”, and McDonald should get it back on track.
This isn’t a particularly flashy hire, but I have a hard time seeing this flaming out. Overall a solid hire that should keep the Seahawks viable in the NFC.
5. Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders- Two years after passing on interim head coach Rich Bisaccia for Josh McDaniels, the Raiders were once again left in the same position. The McDaniels era was the latest example of a team attempting to clone the Patriots with minimal returns.
Linebackers coach Antonio Pierce stepped up midway through the 2023 season and impressively had a winning record in his nine games as head coach. Many believed Las Vegas made a mistake not giving Bisaccia the full time gig after guiding a squad that dealt with multiple off-the-field problems to the playoffs.
Pierce is getting the chance Bisaccia never did and is now the permanent leader for a team in a very tough spot. Vegas doesn’t have a clear cut franchise quarterback and aren’t in position to draft one unless it trades up.
2022 leading rusher Josh Jacobs is hitting free agency and star WR Davante Adams may want out. The Chiefs also hold a monopoly on the AFC West and the Chargers just hired Harbaugh.
I don’t see this as a home run hire, however Pierce has the respect of his locker room and provides stability for a franchise that desperately needs it. The Raiders will be an intriguing team to watch this offseason, namely what they decide to do at the QB position.
6. Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots- Jerod Mayo has the unenviable task of replacing his former head coach. Mayo played the entirety of his NFL career in Foxborough and has been with the team as the inside linebackers coach since 2019.
This is the hardest hire for me to evaluate, Mayo has never been a head coach or a coordinator like the others on this list. We don’t have a previous coaching tenure to evaluate or see him oversee one side of the ball.
New England’s defense remained strong with Mayo on staff, however how much of that was because of Belichick?
I expect Mayo to maintain competent defenses but the real question lies in the offense. The Pats’ have the worst offensive personnel in football and are in a division that is(finally) tough around them.
Holding the third overall pick, New England will likely draft either Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels. The lack of weapons is well noted and the offensive line has continued to regress since offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia retired after 2019.
This hire is largely a mystery, and if the Patriots want to return to relevance, they need to find the franchise guy under center and support him better than they did Mac Jones.
7. Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons- Atlanta made a lot of noise this offseason with reports it was interviewing the likes of Bill Belichick and Jim Harbaugh. Despite all the rumors of the Falcons landing a premier hire, they went with Raheem Morris.
While Morris isn’t the worst hire in the world, it still feels underwhelming considering some of the big names the team interviewed. Morris did good work as the Rams defensive coordinator including a Super Bowl in 2021.
However, Morris has a career record of 21-38 as a head coach. The Falcons are likely acquiring a young quarterback this offseason, whether it be in the draft or a trade for Justin Fields.
If the team banks its hopes on a young signal caller, it would make sense to give him a coach with an offensive background. Atlanta has some promising offensive pieces in Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts, along with a great offensive line.
With that being said, the franchise won’t go anywhere unless it massively upgrades at the quarterback position. Offensive coordinator hire Zac Robinson plays a huge role in this hire panning out.
8. Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders- The Commanders fired a veteran defensive head coach in Ron Rivera and his replacement is another veteran defensive coach. I don’t understand the choice of direction for this franchise.
Quinn had a largely respectable stint with the Falcons and is a proven commodity as a defensive coordinator, however this hire doesn’t feel it is changing much.
Like Atlanta, Washington is likely going to bring in a young quarterback. Regardless of who that QB may be, it makes sense to bring in an offensive minded coach to help develop their top draft pick.
While I don’t doubt Quinn will improve a defense that gave up a league-worst 30.5 points per game in 2023, I still believe many of the same issues remain with the franchise.
I don’t see Quinn being a disaster, however there appears to be a relatively low ceiling to what this team is capable of. While none of these hires were terrible on paper, this is the one that makes the least sense to me considering where the Commanders are as a franchise.