Overview:
The ACC has been arguably the best conference in college basketball this year. According to ESPN insider Charlie Creme’s bracketology, the conference has nine teams that could get a bid to March Madness, the most of any conference. They have routinely had five teams ranked at a time and have a competitive depth that is rivaled only by the PAC-12, Big 12, and Atlantic 10.
Not only is the race in the standings competitive, but so is the race for ACC player of the year. Reigning back-to-back player of the year Elizabeth Kitley of Virginia Tech has once again put together an elite season, even by her standards. After forgoing the WNBA draft last year to return to Blacksburg for a fifth season with aspirations for another Final Four run, Kitley has posted career highs in both points (22.9 PPG) and rebounds (11.5 RPG). Dyashia Fair, a fifth-year senior now in her second season with Syracuse, has worked her way up to fifth on the NCAA women’s all-time scoring list. She has also pulled the Syracuse Orange to a second place rank in the conference. She is third in the country in three-pointers made, and her 23.8 PPG in conference play is second in the ACC. In a star-studded freshman class, Notre Dame was lucky enough to get Hannah Hidalgo, one of the most dynamic players in all of college basketball. Hidalgo ranks 3rd in points per game on the season in the entire country, as well as leading the nation in steals. Perhaps most impressively, as just a freshman, she has the second highest usage rate in the ACC.
The most surprising team has probably been Syracuse, at least compared to preseason expectations. The Orange were expected to finish ninth in the conference in the preseason poll, and will certainly finish the season in the top four, but more likely in the top two of the league. Led by Dyashia Fair, Syracuse has captured ranked wins over Notre Dame (twice), Florida State, and Louisville. Their overtime loss at NC State in the final week of the regular season has left them needing serious help to host the first two rounds of March Madness, but nonetheless, this has been a successful season for Felisha Legette-Jack’s squad.
On the flip side, North Carolina has been a rather surprising disappointment. After an agonizing loss to Ohio State in the second round of last year’s March Madness, the Tar Heels had high hopes coming into this season. They did lose guard Kennedy Todd-Williams to Ole Miss, but still put together a compelling roster on paper. They returned two of their top three scorers, and added two intriguing transfers in Lexi Donarski from Iowa State and North Carolina product Indya Nivar from Stanford. This optimism resulted in a No. 16 preseason AP ranking, but that quickly dissipated after a stretch in late November and early January where the Tar Heels lost three of four. To make matters worse, UNC lost redshirt-sophomore guard Kayla McPherson to what has ultimately turned into a season-ending knee injury. Things got better at the beginning of the conference slate, but four straight losses to Virginia, NC State, Virginia Tech, and Duke in early-February saw UNC slide from contention for a No. 1 seed in the conference tournament to a tie for seventh in the conference.
Favorite: Virginia Tech
Since the first week of December, the Hokies have been chasing NC State in the AP Poll, but they have been the top team in the league for some time now. Between fifth-year senior Elizabeth Kitley and senior guard Georgia Amoore, Virginia Tech has one of the best guard-forward combos in the entire country, let alone the ACC. At 40.9 PPG, they are the highest scoring duo in the conference. Amoore’s 7.4 APG leads the conference and ranks second nationally, while Kitley’s 11.5 RPG also leads the conference and ranks sixth in the country.
Beyond the Kitley/Amoore duo, the Hokies have increased their depth, and coach Kenny Brooks has modified his lineup strategy from the one that took the team to the Final Four one season ago. Last season, the Hokies had only six players who averaged more than ten minutes per game. This season, the Hokies have 9 players averaging more than ten minutes per game. The core of Kitley and Amoore, along with fifth year senior Cayla King, all averaged over 30 minutes over the last two seasons. Last season, sharpshooter Kayana Traylor who’s now on a training camp contract with the Minnesota Lynx, also averaged over 30 minutes, and this year that role has been taken by Michigan State transfer Matilda Ekh. The Hokies shoot more three-pointers than anyone else in the conference and at a better clip, and Ekh is a large part of that offensive model.
If there is one cause for concern it is the Duke Blue Devils, and their elite defense. No team in the league has caused the Hokies more problems over the last two years than coach Kara Lawson and the Blue Devils. Duke is the only ACC team to beat the Hokies both this season and last season. It is worth noting that Virginia Tech has won both matchups in Blacksburg, VA, but will not have that home court advantage in the ACC tournament. For as talented as Georgia Amoore is (she is a projected top 10 pick in this year’s WNBA draft if she does declare), Duke’s length and full court press routinely disrupts her, and by extension the entire Virginia Tech offense. In ACC play, the Hokies have averaged 73.3 points, with Amoore averaging 18.9 points on 41% shooting. Against Duke, the Hokies have had their two lowest scoring outputs all year, averaging 53.5 points in those two contests, and Amoore has averaged 9.5 points on 21% shooting. At basically every position Virginia Tech has the superior player, but running into Duke at some point during the tournament will certainly make the title run much harder for the No. 1 seed.
Dark Horse: Notre Dame
Notre Dame has been a competitive team in the ACC for the last couple years, grabbing theNo. 3 seed in 2022 and the No. 1 seed last season. However, the Irish haven’t made it to the championship game since 2019, losing a heartbreaker to Miami two years ago, and injuries cutting their title run short last year. This year, injuries are still plaguing their season. Olivia Miles’ knee injury suffered in February of last season has kept her off the floor for the entirety of this year, but they have been the beneficiaries of one of the most impressive freshmen in the country, Hannah Hidalgo. The 5-star guard from New Jersey is the third highest scoring player after Caitlin Clark and fellow freshman JuJu Watkins, as well as leading the country in steals per game at 4.8. When Virginia Tech came to South Bend in the last week of the regular season, she delivered a performance that met the moment. Her 23 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals, along with a relentless defensive pressure, helped the Irish knock off the fifth ranked Hokies.
Currently the Irish are slated to be the 5th seed in the ACC tournament. They have the same record as NC State and Louisville, but both teams have the tiebreaker over Notre Dame. This pack of teams lead Duke and Florida State by one game, so the results of Sunday’s ACC slate could shake things up as far as the final order of seeding.
The Irish have the highest scoring differential in the league, but also have the worst turnover differential, which has really been the common thread over a mixed-bag season in South Bend. They key will be if Hannah Hidalgo can score enough to keep the Irish in the game, while also getting help from the teams’ secondary scoring options. The secondary scoring is arguably much more important, as Notre Dame is 2-3 when Hidalgo scores 30 or more points, but 16-1 when she records five or more assists (for what it’s worth, they are 2-1 when both things occur). One of those 16 wins was against No. 8 UConn, where Hidalgo scored 34 points and added six assists. The most recent of those 16 wins was against the aforementioned red-hot Hokies team, who carried a 10 game win streak into South Bend. Hidalgo’s impressive statline was complemented by a 19 point, 10 rebound performance from Maddie Westbeld and 21 points from Sonia Citron, all coming in the second half. If they can find a way to balance their scoring, they can beat top-end teams, which gives them an outside shot at winning the tournament.
Prediction: Virginia Tech over NC State
These have been pretty consistently the two best teams over the course of the season. Virginia Tech is the hottest team in the league, and outside of Duke, have handled their ACC slate largely without issue.
The two other teams that have legitimate chances to make a title run are NC State and Syracuse. NC State, while they have stumbled down the stretch, have substantial experience in March. They had a disappointing first round exit against Princeton last year in March Madness, but every starter this year played significant minutes in that game. That consistency benefited the Wolfpack greatly, as all five of their starters are averaging double-digit scoring, they are the only team in the ACC where that is the case. This helped them to a 14-0 start to the year, including wins over No. 2 UConn, No. 3 Colorado, and No. 22 Florida State during that run.
Syracuse’s hopes are tied to Dyashia Fair, which, all things considered, is a great candidate to be leaning on for success. She has led the Orange in scoring all but two times during its ACC schedule, and they lost one of those games. She is third in scoring average in the conference and leads all players in the ACC in 3 pointers made. Behind Fair, Syracuse is somewhat thin. Georgia Wooley has stepped up at times, most recently a stretch in mid-February where she scored 50 points over two games to lead the Orange to victories on the road over Virginia and Miami. This Syracuse team has done a lot of winning this year, and their path to the ACC title is feasible if they can get past NC State.
The two teams will square off on February 29, which will be the season finale for Syracuse, and will likely be a good look into what a potential ACC semi-final matchup could look like.
Virginia Tech has had NC State’s number this year and has both the depth and experience advantage over Syracuse, so whichever of the two advances to the title game, the edge probably goes to the Hokies.
Charlie Creme Bracketology:
Virginia Tech: Automatic Qualifier, No. 2 seed hosting the Blacksburg pod.
NC State: No. 3 seed hosting the Raleigh pod.
Notre Dame: No. 5 seed in the Colorado (Boulder) pod.
Syracuse: No. 5 seed in the Indiana (Bloomington) pod.
Louisville: No. 6 seed in the LSU (Baton Rouge) pod.
North Carolina: No. 6 seed in the UConn (Storrs) pod.
Duke: No. 7 seed in the Iowa (Iowa City) pod.
Florida State: No. 7 seed in the Texas (Austin) pod.
Miami: No. 9 seed in the South Carolina (Columbia) pod.