Overview
The Big 12 is stacked, currently holding five spots in the AP poll and projecting to send seven teams to the NCAA Tournament. However, there’s a clear divide between Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and everyone else. After an exhilarating regular season race, the Big 12 tournament should only serve as a precursor to the excitement and competition to be seen in the NCAA Tournament.
The Favorite – Texas
The Longhorns’ overall body of work this season has proven they are the best team in the conference, despite letting the regular season title slip away. Texas lost four conference games by an average margin of 3.5 points, and were just 4.5 seconds away from claiming the regular season title in Norman on Feb. 28. Regardless, the Longhorns enter the conference tournament as the No. 2 seed, equal to their current seed projection in the NCAA Tournament.
Texas is the most complete team in the Big 12, the only team in the conference to own a top three scoring offense and defense (No. 1 offense, No. 3 defense), and have no glaring weaknesses. The Longhorns are dominant in the frontcourt, led by star freshman forward Madison Booker (16.5 PPG), and her running mates Taylor Jones (12.8 PPG) and Aaliyah Moore (10.3 PPG). Whether or not Texas has the guard play to win a national title without Rori Harmon remains to be seen, but the Longhorns have been without Harmon for the entirety of Big 12 play and have held up. They should continue to do so on their way to a conference tournament title.
Contender – Oklahoma
The Sooners aren’t the best team in the conference, but nabbing the Big 12 regular season title and No. 1 seed in the conference tournament greatly smoothens the Sooners’ path to the title. I don’t regard Oklahoma as the best team in the conference because of their shaky non-conference resume – and neither do the pollsters or bracketologists – but the Sooners won the conference’s regular season title for a reason. Oklahoma split the season series with Kansas State and swept Texas, and the Sooners’ one point win over the Longhorns in Norman on Feb. 28 proved decisive for the regular season title.
The Sooners’ success is spearheaded by senior forward Skylar Vann who leads the team in scoring (15.0 PPG) and rebounding (7.2 RPG). The Robin to Vann’s Batman, Payton Velhurst, is second on the team in said statistical categories. The Sooners are exceptionally deep, with ten players logging ten or more minutes per game, and on any given night can have a role player step up. Senior guard Lexy Keys was the hero in Oklahoma’s title clinching victory over Texas, scoring 16 points, including the go-ahead three-pointer with 4.5 seconds remaining. What might plague the Sooners is their conference worst scoring defense. They’ve won their fair share of shootouts, but have lost meaningful games in the same fashion.
Contender – Kansas State
Kansas State’s fall from grace has been tragic. The Wildcats peaked as the No. 2 team in the country, but have lost five of their last nine to close out the regular season and are now projected a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. I still believe the Wildcats can contend for the conference title for two reasons. For one, how impressive they were in their 20-1 start, their only blemish being Caitlin Clark’s Iowa Hawkeyes, who the Wildcats also beat in Iowa City as part of a non-conference season series.
The other reason K-State can still contend for the conference title: Ayoka Lee. The 6’6 senior center is the conference’s third top scorer (19.9 PPG), but has missed some time. K-State’s recent losses to Texas and Oklahoma came with Lee out of the lineup, and the Wildcats defeated both teams with Lee healthy. The Wildcats are clearly a different team with Lee on the court, despite three recent uncharacteristic losses with Lee playing.
The Dark Horse – Baylor
It feels weird coining a program as prestigious as Baylor a dark horse, but the Bears are a dangerous No. 5 seed. The Bears are extremely well-rounded and deep, featuring seven players scoring at least seven points per game. Additionally, Baylor would avoid having to face Texas or Kansas State until the championship game if they make it that far.
My Prediction – Texas
Hook ‘em. Texas has the best overall body of work of any team in the conference, but can still prove a lot by winning the conference tournament. Their likely semifinal matchup with K-State will likely decide the conference tournament, as I’d predict either team to go on to defeat whoever their championship game opponent would be. Whether or not Texas can beat the Wildcats with a healthy Ayoka Lee remains to be seen, but given the Wildcats’ recent struggles, I’ll take the Longhorns. Additionally, if Texas does match up with Oklahoma in the title game, I doubt the Sooners would win a third matchup after sweeping the regular season series. All three of the top contenders should make noise in the dance, but for Texas, I expect the music to start playing a little bit earlier.