Overview:
The 2024 Men’s Big Ten Tournament will be up in Minneapolis, Minnesota. In a tournament that never fails to deliver memorable moments, this year’s rendition is bound to create some more. The Big Ten this year is objectively weaker in terms of top-end teams, other than Purdue, than in years past, but with some teams underperforming this season, the parity throughout the conference is at an all-time high. This year’s tournament is truly up for grabs, so let’s break down some of the noteworthy teams in tiers.
The Favorite:
Purdue Boilermakers: Unsurprisingly, the Purdue Boilermakers are the favorite to win heading into Minnesota. Purdue is one of the best teams in the country, and they are led by the reigning National Player of the Year, Zach Edey. Purdue won the Big Ten regular-season title for the second consecutive year with relative ease. Purdue only lost three games all year, and they recently swept the season series against their biggest competition, the Illinois Fighting Illini. Purdue is coming off a historic loss to Fairleigh Dickinson University in last year’s first round of the NCAA Tournament. However, they are looking to repeat what Virginia did the year after they lost to UMBC: win the national championship. The catalysts for the Boilermakers are the tandem of sophomore guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. Both of them started as freshmen on last year’s team and are using the experience from last year to fuel their play this year. Smith and Loyer’s most significant adjustment this season is the drastic improvement in their shooting numbers from last year to this year, especially from beyond the arc, where they are shooting 45% (Smith) and 42% (Loyer), respectively. Smith and Loyer are crucial for the tournament success of the Boilermakers because if they can continue to shoot efficiently from three-point range and Edey continues to dominate in the paint, Purdue becomes almost impossible to stop. Purdue has all the makings of a team that could play all the way through March and into April, and it starts with capturing a Big Ten Tournament championship.
The Contenders:
Illinois Fighting Illini: The Fighting Illini are the main threat to Purdue, and they have the roster to take them down. Now that Terrence Shannon Jr. is back in the lineup consistently, Illinois has its most complete roster of the season at the perfect time. Not only is Illinois a talented roster, but they also have loads of experience with players like Coleman Hawkins, Dain Dainja, and Southern Illinois transfer Marcus Domask. Illinois has struggled in big games this year, especially in their two matchups with Purdue, where they got blown out on the road and just recently blew a second-half lead to the Boilermakers in Champaign. The concern to get over the “big game hump” is a valid one for the Illini. They have been able to beat the teams they are supposed to beat but then lose games they are supposed to lose. That is not a recipe for success in March, but Brad Underwood has been here many times before, and this is one of his better rosters at Illinois. Illinois’ success comes mainly in a team-first capacity under Underwood. Shannon is the star, but the supporting cast of players all doing their roles is what will make Illinois successful in Minnesota and beyond. Illinois ranks in the top 12 in the country in team rebounds per game and points per game, and that rebounding will be a crucial strength that Illinois will have to flex if they happen to run into Purdue again.
Nebraska Cornhuskers: It may surprise some to see Nebraska in the “Contenders” tier, but it is time to accept that Nebraska is a legitimate threat in the Big Ten this year. The Cornhuskers will make the big dance for the first time under head coach Fred Hoiberg, who took over in the 2019-20 season and has produced improvement each year since the team’s 7-25 record in Hoiberg’s first season. Nebraska has put it all together this year, and a massive reason is senior sensation Keisei Tominaga. Tominaga is averaging 14 points per game, and he is the heart and soul of the Cornhuskers. One of his most memorable performances this year came against Purdue, where he scored 19 points by pouring in five three-pointers in an 88-72 win over the Boilermakers, who only have three losses all year. However, it is obviously not just a one-man show with these Cornhuskers. The supporting cast this season has been encouraging, with players like forward Bienk Mast averaging over 12 points and eight rebounds a game and guard Brice Williams, who also averages over 12 points a game while shooting a consistent 38% from three. Nebraska has continued to prove that they are a serious threat in the Big Ten this year. They have the star power in Tominaga, a solid supporting cast, and an experienced coach, and they have already slayed the Purdue dragon once. It would not surprise me if they were able to make serious noise in Minnesota.
Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers have had a season of ups and downs. They got off to an 8-1 start in Big Ten play, and in the final AP Poll of January, Wisconsin was ranked 7th in the country. Then, the calendar turned to February. They went on to lose their next four games in a row to Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan, and Rutgers, and by the time the February 19th AP Poll was released, Wisconsin was no longer ranked at all. Since that brutal two-week stretch, the Badgers have been weathering the storm by playing .500 basketball over the last two weeks of February and the first week of March. The Badgers will be looking to return to their early season version of themselves at the Big Ten Tournament, and they have the talent to do just that. AJ Storr is one of the best guards in the conference, averaging over 16 points-per- game, and he is known for his next-level shot-making. Wisconsin is always in an offensive possession if Storr is on the court. Like Nebraska, the Badgers have a solid support cast of experienced players that can bring a calming presence come tournament time. Tyler Wahl and Chucky Hepburn are critical to the postseason success of this Badgers team. Wahl, a 6’9” 225-pound forward, is this team’s primary paint presence, and he has been highly reliable for head coach Greg Gard for years. While Hepburn has had issues with scoring in the past, he is essential to this Wisconsin offense because of what he can create for his teammates. Hepburn leads the team in minutes played and assists and is always looking to make his teammates better. This Big Ten tournament is a crucial opportunity for Wisconsin to regain some of its early season momentum, and they have the tools to make a run.
Northwestern Wildcats: Wildcats’ head coach, Chris Collins, who is coming off winning Big Ten Coach of the Year in the 2022-23 season, has done a tremendous job again this year. Outside of getting upset by Chicago State at home, the season got off to an excellent start for Northwestern, including an upset win over the previously undefeated Purdue Boilermakers. The man who makes the engine run for Northwestern is senior guard Boo Buie. He averages over 18 points and five assists per game, shooting 43% from beyond the arc. Speaking of good three-point shooting, Buie is not the only Wildcat that shoots the three well. Northwestern ranks eighth in the country in three-point percentage (39.1%), and they set up their three-point shooting well through good ball movement and not turning the ball over. The Wildcats rank second in the Big Ten in both turnover and assist/turnover margins. Northwestern is dangerous because they know what their style of basketball is, and Chris Collins does a great job of ensuring they play that way. They will make the opponent work to get the game at their pace/style, which is extremely valuable in March.
The Dark Horses:
Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans have been the biggest surprise in the conference this season, but not in a good way. It has been a disappointing season by many standards in East Lansing. The Spartans were ranked fourth in the preseason AP Poll, and it looked to be a three-horse race in the Big Ten between Purdue, Michigan State, and Illinois. It is very easy to see why there was so much preseason hype around this Spartan team. The returning talent on this team is ridiculous, with the elite backcourt tandem of A.J. Hoggard and Tyson Walker, forward Malik Hall, and guard Jaden Akins all coming back to play for future Hall of Fame coach Tom Izzo. However, despite the elite talent on paper, and one of the best coaches in the country at the helm, the Spartans have yet to put it together. It started with a tough start in the non-conference portion of the schedule, where they lost their first game of the season in a shocker to James Madison and then fell in challenging games to Duke and Arizona. The start of conference play did not turn the Spartans’ fortunes around either, as they started 1-4 through their first five Big Ten games. However, since that 1-4 start, Michigan State has been able to right the ship by going 9-5 in their last 14 games. Also, every team in the Big Ten knows that Michigan State turns it up a notch in March. The Spartans have built their reputation as a March team because of their ability to wreak havoc on every opponent they play in March. They are always a tough out in March, no matter how good or bad of a year they are having. They will probably enter the conference tournament as the seventh seed, but the teams at the top know that numbers are thrown out the window in March with this spartan program. So, with a roster as experienced and talented as this Michigan State team, top seeds in the Big Ten tournament should proceed with caution if they run into the Spartans.
Iowa Hawkeyes: The NCAA tournament starts in Minnesota for the Hawkeyes. As of the March 8th edition of Joe Lunardi’s bracketology, Iowa is one of the first four teams out of the NCAA tournament. So, if you believe in teams with the most to play for, the Hawkeyes will be your team in this Big Ten tournament. It looks like for Iowa to make the big dance, they will have to win at least two games in the Big Ten tournament, and as I will continue to mention, that is entirely possible with the amount of parity in this conference. As is often the case with Iowa, their struggles have not been a result of their ability to score; it is the defense. Iowa ranks 307th out of 351 Division 1 teams in defensive efficiency, while their 117.5 offensive rating ranks 24th in the country. The lack of an ability to get stops late in games has haunted Iowa on multiple occasions, and it is reasonable to assume that they will have to overcome those woes in a tight conference tournament game. However, this Hawkeyes team is a very close group that understands how to play with one another and what it takes to win. Veterans Payton Sandfort and Patrick McCaffery have years of experience playing in postseason games, and the Hawkeyes will most definitely lean on those two at times to get a big bucket. In fact, Sandfort, McCaffery, and senior guard Tony Perkins were all on the team in 2022 when Iowa won the Big Ten tournament. That experience should work in the Hakweyes’ favor as they enter a must-win situation in this year’s tournament.
Indiana Hoosiers: One word that could accurately summarize the Indiana Hoosiers regular season is inconsistency. The Hoosiers have multiple winning streaks of three games or more and multiple losing streaks of three or more. Needless to say, it has been a struggle for Mike Woodson’s group to find a groove. That said, Indiana presents a challenge for the top seeds in the Big Ten because of their imposing size. Indiana’s top three scorers in terms of average points per game are Malik Reneau (6’9”), Kel’el Ware (7’0”), and Mackenzie Mgbako (6’8”). The combination of size and skill from these three will present a matchup nightmare somewhere on the offensive end in favor of the Hoosiers. The issues for Indiana have been bad free throw shooting and too many turnovers. The Hoosiers average almost 12 turnovers a game, which ranks 215th in the country, and they shoot just 65.8% from the charity stripe as a team; that is good for a 343rd rank out of the 351 Division 1 teams. There is no doubt that turnovers and free throws go a long way toward deciding tight games in March, and with those being two areas of weakness for Indiana, it could be a quick trip to Minnesota. However, as previously mentioned, they are highly skilled and prominent in the front court, which can create issues for their opponents, and in a single elimination format, anything can happen.
Prediction:
Purdue Boilermakers: Picking Purdue is the most predictable and boring take possible, and I understand that. In fact, I spent a lot of time trying to write up a prediction that another team, mainly Illinois and Nebraska, would win this tournament, and every time, I had to stop because I could not justify it. The Boilermakers have shown flashes of vulnerability in their three losses, but there is a reason that an undefeated regular season in college basketball is so rare. Purdue is already the most talented team in the conference, top to bottom, and they are playing at an elite level right now. Their three-point shooting has improved throughout the season, and that is the nail in the coffin for me. With Edey already being the country’s most dominant paint presence, if Purdue can continue to shoot well from three, it will be extremely difficult for anyone in the country, let alone the Big Ten, to take them down.