Overview
With six teams currently in line for or seeking an at-large NCAA Tournament bid, the Mountain West is staking its claim for status as a power conference in men’s basketball. Last year’s Mountain West champion, San Diego State, went on a remarkable run to the national championship, defeating No. 1 overall seed Alabama in the process. Despite the conference’s ascension as a whole, there has been limited success in March outside of the Aztecs’ run last season. The conference will have more opportunities than ever to prove its legitimacy in this tournament, but first, the conference must crown a champion in Las Vegas.
The Favorite – Utah State
The regular season champion Aggies were not expected to be in this position back in November. Picked ninth in the preseason coaches poll, first-year head coach Danny Sprinkle picked up right where Ryan Odom left off, and now, the Aggies are positioned for a second consecutive NCAA Tournament berth.
The Aggies are powered by a hyper-efficient and versatile offense that can score with anyone. 6’8 forward Great Osobor has proven to be one of the biggest impact transfers of the season, coming with coach Sprinkle from Montana State. Osobor was an impact bench player at Montana State, but has started all 31 games at Utah State, leading the Aggies in scoring (17.6 PPG), rebounding (9.0 RPG) and shot-blocking (1.5 BPG). Osobor’s offensive production comes almost exclusively in the paint and from the free throw line, but Utah State has capable guards to complement him.
While Utah State isn’t among the best three-point shooting teams in the country like they were last year, they have two knock-down shooters in Ian Martinez (13.3 PPG, 38.5% 3PT%) and Darius Brown II (12.4 PPG, 40.4% 3PT%). Brown II also leads the Aggies in assists (6.4 APG) and steals (1.5 SPG). The Aggies offense runs like a well-oiled machine not only due to their scoring prowess, but their ability to limit turnovers.
On the defensive end, Utah State is among the best in the country defending the perimeter. Their two-point defense is among the worst in the country despite Osobor’s shot blocking ability. This formula has held up though, with an offense as good as Utah State’s is.If the Aggies can take away the three, opposing teams struggle to keep up.
Perhaps the biggest turnaround for this year’s Utah State team is their ability to win close games. Last year’s team was a pedestrian 4-5 in games decided by 10 points or less. This year? An outstanding 10-1 mark, with the lone blemish coming in a six-point November loss to Bradley. This time of year is the ultimate gut check for teams, and Utah State has proven to have a stomach of steel.
Contender – Nevada
Since its three-game slide in mid-January, nobody in the conference has played better basketball than Nevada. The Wolf Pack have won 11 of their last 13 and seven consecutive games to close out the regular season, playing themselves safely into the NCAA Tournament field. This is the best Nevada team we’ve seen since the 2018 Sweet Sixteen team, and the Wolf Pack have the upside to produce similar results this year.
Three things stand out when profiling Nevada. First, they rarely turn the ball over. Second, they will get to the free throw line. Third, they knock down open threes.
Nevada’s best player, Jarod Lucas (17.8 PPG), embodies these principles to a tee. Lucas averages less than a turnover per game, shoots 90.1% from the charity stripe on 5.4 attempts per game, and shoots 40.1% from downtown on nearly six attempts per game. Lucas has a strong supporting cast around him, as fellow guard Kenan Blackshear (15.1 PPG) and forward Nick Davidson (12.2 PPG) both penetrate the paint while Tre Coleman (8.6 PPG, 35.6% 3PT) and Hunter McIntosh (5.9 PPG, 44.9% 3PT) stretch out the defense.
Nevada is well-built and battle-tested. The Wolf Pack’s seven Quad One wins are the most of any team in the conference, and I trust them the most to string together consecutive wins over quality opponents.
Contender – Boise State
There are few teams that can rival the sheer size that Boise State possesses. Every player to see action this season for the Broncos is 6’3 or taller, and they play to that strength. Their three-point defense is exceptional (30.8% against) due to their ability to contest, and they’re also phenomenal at limiting offensive rebounds and second chances.
Boise State’s size doesn’t limit their offensive play style either. The Broncos have four 10+ PPG scorers who all shoot at least 33% from three despite all being 6’5 or taller. Perhaps the most well rounded of the group is 6’7” guard Chibuzo Agbo, who averages 13.6 PPG while shooting 41.6% from three. Agbo is able to use his size when he needs to, but has the skill set to score at all three levels. Guard Max Rice has taken a slight step backward from his standout 2022-23 campaign, but he still has the green light and can catch fire any given night. In late January, Rice scored 35 points and buried seven threes to lift Boise State over New Mexico in Albuquerque. Forwards Tyson Degenhart and O’Mar Stanley are both effective, but not limited to working around the rim, as Degenhart bears more offensive responsibility (team-leading 16.8 PPG) while Stanley does more of the dirty work (team-leading 6.3 RPG, 1.1 BPG).
I think Boise State’s standing as the No. 3 seed in the conference is the most accurate of any team. The Broncos are 1-3 against the conference’s top two seeds and 12-2 against everyone else, including sweeps of San Diego State and New Mexico.
Contender – San Diego State
San Diego State is the conference’s analytical darling and defending national runner-up. San Diego State received 25 of 31 votes to champion the conference in the preseason poll, so the Aztecs’ fifth place regular season finish is a far cry from their high expectations. SDSU forward Jaedon Ledee, to no surprise, was named the Mountain West Player of the Year after a 20.5 PPG season. The Aztecs have a number of good role players to support Ledee, but no particular standouts on an individually consistent basis. While the Aztecs lack an alpha guard on offense, all of their guards defend the perimeter well, as opponents shoot just 30.5% beyond the arc against SDSU.
Why SDSU can’t be trusted is their pitiful resumé on the road. The Aztecs did not win a single road game against the top seven teams in the conference, and their only somewhat impressive road win all season is a December win in Spokane over Gonzaga, which looks better now that the Bulldogs have dug themselves out of a rut since then . With SDSU’s first round matchup being a true road game against tournament hosts UNLV, I see the Aztecs going out early, and potentially facing a similar fate in the NCAA Tournament with the right matchup.
Contender – Colorado State
The Rams once looked to be a surefire NCAA Tournament team, but have played themselves closer and closer to the bubble down the stretch, losing four of their last seven games. While I think the Rams will end up being a tournament team, I don’t think they’ll be a very threatening one.
Senior point guard Isaiah Stevens has started all 148 games in his five years at CSU and can score at will. Stevens has grown as a passer throughout his career, posting a career high in assists (7.0 APG) this season. Stevens has also taken a massive leap as a three-point shooter this season, posting a career high 45.7% clip from beyond the arc.
Everything the Rams do starts and ends with Stevens, but his supporting cast is strong as well. Around the rim, few teams are better than Colorado State, shooting 67.6% as a team inside the paint, led by forward Joel Scott (12.5 PPG, 61.8% 2PT). Despite the Rams’ prowess in the paint, Stevens isn’t the only perimeter threat for CSU, as Nique Clifford (12.5 PPG, 40.2% 3PT) and Patrick Cartier (10.9 PPG, 37.5% 3PT) are also reliable three point shooters.
I’m lower on Colorado State for the same reason I’m lower on San Diego State. They are drastically worse on the road than at home in Fort Collins, with the elevation playing into their home court advantage. Colorado State’s best win outside of their home state was against 12-19 Loyola Marymount in December. SDSU did not win a road game against the top seven teams in the conference, which is true of CSU, but CSU also lost in Laramie to eighth place regular season finisher Wyoming. I expect the Rams to take care of business in their first round matchup with San Jose State, but fizzle out after. Similarly, I expect CSU’s name to be called on Selection Sunday, but their upside playing away from home is limited, making them a likely early exit.
Contender – New Mexico
Similarly to Colorado State, New Mexico has stumbled down the stretch and played themselves squarely onto the NCAA Tournament bubble. New Mexico won only four of their last 10 games to close out the regular season . Out of the six Mountain West teams with at-large hopes, New Mexico has the most work to do. The Lobos must win their first round matchup with Air Force and would likely need to avoid a third consecutive loss to Boise State in the quarterfinals to secure a bid in the NCAA Tournament field.
New Mexico’s statistical profile is quite strong. They play at a blistering pace but limit turnovers, force a lot of turnovers defensively, defend the three and rebound well on both sides. New Mexico is also led by a fascinating triumvirate of guards, with Jamal Mashburn Jr., Jaelen House and Donovan Dent all averaging around 15 PPG. Freshman forward JT Toppin contributes 12.6 PPG on 63.2% FG, while also leading the team in rebounding (8.8 RPG) and shot-blocking (1.9 BPG). Toppin’s partner in the frontcourt, Nelly Junior Joseph is also a capable scorer in the paint (9.2 PPG) while contributing in a big way to the Lobos’ strong rebounding (8.1 RPG).
By all means, New Mexico is a very well built team, but their struggles as of late can’t be ignored. Down the stretch, they’ve struggled to force turnovers, something that the Lobos rely heavily upon offensively. New Mexico’s 15 fast break points per game ranks 13th in the country, a mark they failed to reach in three of their five February losses.
Unfortunately for New Mexico and Mountain West fans, I think the Lobos’ inconsistencies down the stretch will lead to their eventual demise in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament against Boise State. Boise State swept the season series in convincing fashion, winning by eight in Albuquerque and by 10 in Boise. The Broncos are simply the better team, and even with an inspired effort from the Lobos, I expect them to come up short. Boise State is a matchup nightmare for New Mexico, the Broncos having ample size to keep the Lobos off the glass and enough offensive control to keep New Mexico out of their fast break.
I think this result leaves New Mexico on the wrong side of the bubble on Selection Sunday, alone at the altar in a white dress and dancing shoes, with no music to be played.
The Dark Horse – UNLV
It feels almost disrespectful to tab UNLV the dark horse with how well they’ve been playing as of late, but as the only contender with no hope of an at-large NCAA Tournament bid, they have the most to gain from winning the conference tournament. The Rebels come into the tournament playing as well as anyone in the conference other than Nevada, winning 10 of their last 12, notching home wins against Colorado State and San Diego State, and upsetting New Mexico at The Pit in Albuquerque in the process. UNLV also has a road win at Boise State and a thumping of Creighton on their resumé, wins among the best in the country, but seven losses outside of quad one anchor the Rebels and require them to secure an automatic bid to reach the NCAA Tournament.
The Rebels’ late season ascension can largely be credited to their defense. In their last 12 games, UNLV has completely turned around their perimeter defense, allowing opponents to shoot only 27.3% from beyond the arc. UNLV ran out of offensive ammunition in their early shootout losses to Southern, Loyola Marymount and Air Force, but their recent defensive renaissance allows them to better control games offensively, UNLV prefers to play at one of the slowest paces in the country.
On the offensive end, UNLV has four 10+ PPG scorers, a mix of guards and forwards who offer tons of versatility to the Rebel offense. Freshman guard Dedan Thomas Jr. leads the team in scoring (13.6 PPG), excelling in the mid-range game. His partner in the backcourt, sixth-year senior Luis Rodriguez, excels going downhill towards the basket, utilizing his 6’6 frame. UNLV’s forwards are twin brothers, but there’s nothing similar about Kalib and Keylan Boone’s play styles. Kalib operates exclusively around the rim, and he does it well, averaging 11.5 PPG on 57.9% FG. Keylan scores at all three levels effectively, his 12.2 PPG good for second on the team.
UNLV got a tough draw, landing San Diego State and Jaedon Ledee in the quarterfinals, but with how well UNLV has been playing and the fact the tournament is being played on their home floor, don’t be surprised if the Rebels make some noise.
My Prediction
First Round
No. 8 Wyoming over No. 9 Fresno State
No. 7 Colorado State over No. 10 San Jose State
No. 6 New Mexico over No. 11 Air Force
Quarterfinals
No. 1 Utah State over No. 8 Wyoming
No. 4 UNLV over No. 5 San Diego State
No. 2 Nevada over No. 7 Colorado State
No. 3 Boise State over No. 6 New Mexico
Semifinals
No. 4 UNLV over No. 1 Utah State
No. 2 Nevada over No. 3 Boise State
Championship
No. 2 Nevada over No. 4 UNLV
Resulting Bracketology
Nevada – 5 Seed
Utah State – 6 Seed
Boise State – 7 Seed
San Diego State – 7 Seed
Colorado State – 11 Seed
New Mexico – First Four Out
UNLV – Never considered, needed automatic bid