Overview
Despite losing key programs to realignment prior to the season, most notably Houston, the American Conference reloaded in a big way. Adding mostly from Conference USA, the American struck gold, landing Florida Atlantic, who instantly became the best team in the conference. Incumbent American programs Memphis and South Florida should both compete for the conference’s crown, making for a competitive race in year one of the new-look American.
The Favorite – Florida Atlantic
The Owls, coming off a Final Four appearance in 2023, were the overwhelming favorite to win the American in the preseason. Despite finishing second in the regular season standings, FAU enters the conference tournament as the overwhelming favorite, and for good reason.
Most of the cast from FAU’s Cinderella story still lead the way for FAU this season, including head coach Dusty May. Johnell Davis has continued to improve, and was named the American player of the year after averaging 18.2 PPG. Davis also leads FAU in assists (3.1), and is second in rebounding (6.3) and steals (1.5). Perhaps most impressive about Davis’ season is the leap he took as a shooter. Davis shot a solid 35.7% from beyond the arc last season, but this season has improved to a 43.8% clip, on even greater volume. Alijah Martin remains alongside Davis in the backcourt, and while a solid shooter, Martin’s athleticism is what shines. Martin can regularly be seen catching alley-oops and throwing down posterizing dunks, sparking energy that the entire team feeds off of. The 7’1 Russian Vladislav Goldin is the traditional back to the basket center who complements the duo of Davis and Martin, and few teams in the country have as good of a trio to match up with the Owls.
FAU hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations, but are still without a doubt the favorite to win the conference. The Owls’ combination of high-end talent, experience and coaching is unmatched by anyone else in the conference, and I expect them to prevail in the conference tournament. FAU would likely be an NCAA Tournament team regardless of whether or not they received the conference’s automatic bid, but an Owl win likely shuts the door on the possibility of American being a two-bid conference.
Contender – South Florida
The Bulls are the ultimate underdogs. Picked to finish ninth in the preseason coaches poll, first year head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim and his team defied the odds and won the conference’s regular season title. After leading Kennesaw State to an NCAA Tournament appearance (and nearly a win) last season, Abdur-Rahim joined USF, and put together a season worthy of national coach of the year consideration. After a rocky 2-4 start to Abdur-Rahim’s USF tenure, the Bulls flipped a switch, winning 21 of 23 to close the season and claiming the regular season title with games to spare.
Also joining USF from Kennesaw State is the Bulls’ leading scorer Chris Youngblood. Youngblood averages 15.3 PPG and is extremely efficient shooting from mid-range (48.4%) and beyond the arc (41.1%). Additionally, the Bulls have had great seasons turned out by Selton Miguel (14.7 PPG) and Kasean Pryor (12.8 PPG).
South Florida does so much well, and demonstrated throughout conference play, but they feel a year ahead of schedule. Youngblood and other key contributors can return for what could be a special 2024-25 campaign, but the Bulls can hang their hat on a surprising and successful season that I think will come up just short of a NCAA Tournament berth.
Contender – Memphis
On their best day, Memphis is one of the best teams in the country. We saw this in the Tigers’ 15-2 start and their peak in the top 10 of the AP Poll, but the subsequent decline has been rapid. Memphis is 7-7 since their 15-2 start, including four brutal losses to end January that ended any hopes the Tigers had for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. Penny Hardaway looks to right the ship in the conference tournament, needing to run the table.
While Johnell Davis was named the American player of the year, Memphis’ David Jones led the American in scoring (21.7 PPG). Jones scores efficiently at all three levels at a high volume, his 30.5% usage rate is among the highest in the country. The Tigers have plenty of talent and experience alongside Jones as well. Nae’Qwan Tomlin could be an X-factor for Memphis in the conference tournament, having scored 20+ points in each of the Tigers’ final four regular season games. Jahvon Quinerly is the best true guard Memphis has, scoring 13.7 PPG and leading the Tigers, dishing out five assists per game.
Nobody is questioning the Tigers’ talent, but it’s hard not to proceed with caution after their inconsistencies throughout the season. I think the Tigers’ talent can prevail all the way to the championship game, but I’ve got FAU winning the rubber match after the teams split the regular season series.
The Dark Horse – SMU
The Mustangs get a pretty favorable draw in the bracket, avoiding USF, FAU and Memphis. SMU should take care of business in their first round matchup, and would then play Charlotte in the quarterfinals, who they handled in the lone regular season matchup. This would likely pit SMU against FAU in the semifinals, and I’d expect the Owls to advance, but I like SMU’s upside to win multiple games in the tournament and make things interesting.
The analytics love SMU, due largely in part to their defense. SMU defends well at all three levels, and they excel at forcing turnovers. SMU’s ability to force turnovers and crash the offensive glass consistently gives them second chance opportunities – more chances to beat teams that may be more talented than them.
My Prediction:
First Round:
No. 11 Temple over No. 14 UTSA
No. 13 Rice over No. 12 Wichita State
Second Round:
No. 9 Tulsa over No. 8 East Carolina
No. 5 Memphis over No. 13 Rice
No. 7 North Texas over No. 10 Tulane
No. 6 SMU over No. 11 Temple
Quarterfinals:
No. 1 South Florida over No. 9 Tulsa
No. 5 Memphis over No. 4 UAB
No. 2 Florida Atlantic over No. 7 North Texas
No. 6 SMU over No. 3 Charlotte
Semifinals:
No. 5 Memphis over No. 1 South Florida
No. 2 Florida Atlantic over No. 6 SMU
Championship:
No. 2 Florida Atlantic over No. 5 Memphis
Resulting Bracketology:
Florida Atlantic – 8 Seed
Memphis – Next Four Out