Week One of College Football has come and gone, so it’s time to overreact. The Missouri Tigers took care of business against Murray State, shutting out the Racers 51-0. However, the important questions to ask about Mizzou aren’t specifically to do with the team, but rather with their future opponents. With a week of football behind us, we can answer a lot more questions about the easiest schedule in the SEC and which teams on that schedule could defy expectations.

Who could be better?

Boston College:

Boston College shocked the college football world on Monday night by going down to Tallahassee and dominating against Florida State. While the last two weeks have told us all we needed to know about the Noles, it’s also true that Boston College took the field and took control from start to finish. Thomas Castellanos is going to do his thing where he runs around and makes some magic happen, but that was always the case. Where I think the Eagles will be better than expected is seen in the other parts of their team, like the pass rush. I still believe Mizzou will handle them, but there’s no doubt that Boston College has improved under Bill O’Brien.

Vanderbilt:

Vanderbilt always seems to be a problem for Mizzou, but through one week, the Commodores look to have potentially their best team since 2018 when Derek Mason was the Head Coach. Vandy rolls into Columbia in Week Four in what will be the fourth straight home game for the Tigers, but now outside of the usual challenges we’ve seen show up for Mizzou when playing Vandy in the past, the ‘Dores could be 3-0.

Transfer Quarterback Diego Pavia looks to be an instant hit in Nashville, bringing Offensive Coordinator Tim Beck with him from New Mexico State. I’m not saying that Vandy is going to come in here and make it close, but based on what we saw against Virginia Tech last weekend and the last three years’ matchups, there are not many reasons to think Clark Lea’s team will be a pushover.

Arkansas:

I know Mizzou fans probably won’t want to hear that Arkansas MIGHT be okay, but the Hogs looked pretty good in Week One against their FCS opponent. In fact, while Mizzou gave up the least amount of yards in the SEC last week, Arkansas was actually second. On the offensive side of the ball, their rushing attack has some real pieces. Taylen Green is a really tough guy to bring down at 6’6, 230 and Ja’Quinden Jackson coming over from Utah gives them a bonafide lead back. We’ll definitely see a lot more strengths and weaknesses show up as the Hogs travel to Stillwater to play number 16 ranked Oklahoma State this weekend. Even though Mizzou gets this game at home, this could be a more difficult game than anticipated.

For the record, Mizzou gets all of these teams at home and should be at least two touchdown favorites in all three. SP+ on a neutral field currently has Mizzou approximately -14 vs Arkansas, -24 vs Boston College and -29 vs Vanderbilt. If you add in these are all Mizzou home games those go up by a couple of points.

Who could be worse?

Texas A&M:

When I was first doing my schedule prediction for Mizzou, I circled this A&M game off as a matchup I did not like. Despite Mizzou coming off of a bye, A&M is supposed to be the first true passing threat on the schedule and the game was on the road. However, it was apparent on Saturday in the loss to Notre Dame that A&M’s passing game might not be as good as I thought it was. Connor Weigman finished 12/30 with 100 yards and 2 INT and yes, Notre Dame’s secondary is one of the best in the nation, but that line is concerning.

Watching the game, I wasn’t impressed by any of Weigman’s throws. It was a lot of short stuff and he actually finished the game at -0.209 PPA/play on passes. For the non-analytics people that means that roughly every 29 passes, Weigman was costing the Aggies six points. With a Mizzou secondary that can find weaknesses and poke holes, A&M’s lack of a strong passing offense could help favor the Tigers in that matchup.

South Carolina:

I didn’t have eyes on the Gamecocks’ contest against Old Dominion, but everything from that box score concerns me. Old Dominion actually outgained South Carolina 305-288–meaning that had the Monarchs not finished with four turnovers to South Carolina’s one, they probably could’ve won the ballgame. LaNorris Sellers has a good arm but accuracy is a huge problem for him right now, finishing just 10-23. However, the most concerning part is that Sellers was sacked four times and the Gamecocks only ran it for 3.1 yards per carry. The offensive line was the biggest issue last year in Columbia East and I’m convinced that they’ve made any strides yet.

As it currently stands, SP+ has Mizzou roughly -12.5 on a neutral field against Texas A&M (too high in my opinion) and around -20 on a neutral against South Carolina. These games are both on the road so give a couple of points to the opponents in these contests.