While some teams are flying high and seem like locks for the playoffs, and others are already looking forward to next season, the majority of NFL teams are in a fierce land battle for the 14 playoff spots given out annually. These teams will suffer tough losses, euphoric wins, and a select few will be subject to tiebreakers that could decide whether they are playoff participants. Welcome to Bursting the Bubble, a biweekly column that will update you on the NFL playoff races that will only continue to get hotter as the season goes on.
What is the bubble?
By the NFL’s definition, the bubble consists of every team that can still make the playoffs but is not currently taking up one of the seven spots for each conference. By that definition, the 1-5 Patriots and Panthers should be covered in this column. I do not have the stomach for such atrocities, so I am creating my own definition. The bubble will consist of the last two teams in and the first two out for each conference. Right now this seems a tad arbitrary, especially considering the Bengals, Cowboys and Seahawks all fail to fit this definition. But as the season whittles down, it will be much harder for teams to jump two or three seeds into a playoff spot. For example, last year there were only five teams outside the playoff picture that were alive Week 18. Anyways, now that we know what the bubble is, let’s discuss who is on it.
AFC
#6: Los Angeles Chargers (3-2)
It is incredibly hard to believe that during the Justin Herbert era, the Chargers have made the playoffs just once. The Chargers, in spite of their blossoming franchise QB, have been mediocre for most of the 2020s but this season seems to mark a change. New HC Jim Harbaugh has fundamentally changed this offense by cutting Herbert’s passing attempts from 35 to a career-low 25 and pounding the rock with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. New DC Jesse Minter has also improved the defense, which is only allowing 13.2 points per game, the best mark in the NFL. Time will tell if this run-first, defensive emphasis will succeed come playoff time, but the Chargers are set up well to find out. They get games against the Cardinals, Saints, and Browns next, all of which have losing records. It is entirely possible that by the first week of November, they are 6-2 and challenging for the AFC West title, which should be a scary sentence for Chiefs fans.
#7: Indianapolis Colts (3-3)
On the surface, 3-3 is not great. But 3-3 is not bad for a team who has seen their starting QB, RB, and defensive cornerstone miss time. The gauge I have gotten on this team is not great. They haven’t generated a sack in eight quarters of football. They let Trevor Lawrence manhandle them to the tune of nearly four hundred yards, and they almost lost to a Will Levis led Titans team. However, Josh Downs has looked outstanding, the O-line has been almost impenetrable, and they have Anthony Richardson waiting to return. He’s expected to start against a Dolphins team that looks lost (spoilers sorry) which should get them above .500. But a gauntlet of the Texans, Vikings and Bills awaits. If Richardson stays healthy, they should have a fringe shot at the playoffs, but that’s a big IF for a guy who has missed more games than he has played.
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#8: Denver Broncos (3-3)
Are you confused? Because I am. Bo Nix, in spite of playing top defenses and really just being thrown into the fire, has this team at 3-3. I shouldn’t say Bo Nix, because really, the defense is doing the heavy lifting. Pat Surtain II has been lights out this season and this front line has brought havoc to opposing QBs. However, I have a tough time seeing this team as more than an 8-9 team that just misses the playoffs. There is a fair amount of defensive potential here between Riley Moss, Bo Nix and Nik Bonnitto, but the offense probably won’t be able to hold up their end of the bargain. The Broncos play two cakewalk NFC South teams before a brutal stretch including the Chiefs and Ravens. Broncos Nation, let’s ride. And by ride, I mean endure the ups and downs of a rebuild.
#9: Miami Dolphins (2-3)
The first thing they teach you when learning how to survive a riptide is to tread. That is exactly what Miami must do to survive the loss of Tua. This offense is fundamentally broken without him. They have played more games without him than with him and he still leads the team in most passing stats. Sure, you don’t want to rush him back from a brain injury given his history, but the longer his absence, the less likely they will be around in January. They are averaging just 8 PPG in three games since Tua was injured and with no timetable for his return, they are stranded. Will they be able to tread long enough?
NFC
#6: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)
Are the Bucs the most underrated team in the league? They manhandled the Saints 51-27 due to a 20 point 4th quarter that dropped the jaws of many NFL Redzone viewers. Much has been made of this offense that is bursting at the seams with talent, but how about this defense? They neutralized the likes of the Lions, Commanders and the Saints, all of whom rank in the top five in PPG. I think they need not worry about “the bubble” and should be contending with the Falcons for the NFC South.
#7: Green Bay Packers (4-2)
The Packers are 4-2 and third in their division. WHAT? If you love divisional bloodbaths, the NFC North is for you. Sadly, anybody who likes a team in said division is in for a doozy. The Vikings are undefeated and the Lions look like the best team in the NFL at the moment. Shifting our focus towards the wild card, the biggest tiebreaker outside of head to head is divisional record. The Packers are 0-1 in that department after a home loss to the Vikings, so they need to get wins against the Bears and Lions in order to hold that advantage. I think the Packers are an amazing team, but they might lose out on a playoff spot if they can’t beat their archrivals due to the NFL’s tiebreaking protocol. They get two AFC South games against Houston and Jacksonville before having to worry about that, however.
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#8: Chicago Bears (4-2)
Normally, I’m used to the Bears being in last place in the NFC North. But has a last place team ever looked this good? The Bears offense is clicking quite well after two weeks of growing pains, and Caleb Williams has three straight games with a passer rating over 100. He seems to have figured it out quite quickly and is continuing to learn at breakneck speed. Could he become the best QB in Bears history? Well before we make that astronomical leap, they have to make the playoffs first. The outlook is tough, but they get an extra week to prepare for fellow NFC breakout Washington before two cakewalk games against the Cardinals and Patriots. It is vital they win two of the next three, because they have the unfortunate distinction of three straight NFC North matchups after. If they sit at 6-3 before that gauntlet of games, they should have a decent shot of making the playoffs even if they lose all three.
#9: Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)
The Eagles may be last on the list, but they are in great shape for a run. They don’t play a single team over .500 until Week ELEVEN. The one team they do play with a .500 record is the Cowboys, who they play in Dallas. Mike McCarthy’s team currently has a -66 point differential at home, so this could be an easy one for Sirianni and Co. I think the Eagles will begin to separate themselves as playoff contenders over the course of the next month and should pose a mighty threat to Washington, who looks to win the NFC East for the first time under the Commanders identity.