We just crossed the halfway point of the NFL season and the race for the playoffs is heating up. Welcome back to Bursting the NFL Bubble, a biweekly column highlighting the teams that are on the razor’s edge of making or missing the playoffs. It has been a crazy three weeks (I forgot to submit a fully written column last week, I am so sorry America) since our last look into the NFL bubble as the NFC North gets tighter by the week and preseason darlings like the Bengals and Dolphins fall further from the picture.
What is the bubble?
Before we get back into the bubble, let’s remind ourselves of what the bubble is. The bubble consists of the last two teams in and the first two out for each conference. Right now this seems a tad arbitrary, especially considering the Dolphins, Cowboys and 49ers all fail to fit my bubble definition. But as the season whittles down, it will be much harder for teams to jump two or three seeds into a playoff spot. Anyways, now that we know what the bubble is, let’s discuss who is on it.
AFC
#6: LA Chargers (5-3)
The Chargers remain on the bubble after going 2-1 over the past three weeks. They swallowed a tough loss versus the Cardinals on a walk-off field goal but trounced the injury-riddled Saints and Browns by double digits. They face another terrible offense when the Titans come to town next weekend which could catapult the Chargers to 6-3. They have a defense that isn’t superstar-studded but is deep and performing at a high level. John Harbaugh is looking like the best coaching hire in Chargers history, and Justin Herbert is finding his young wide receivers and finding them often. Everything looks so sunny, except for their next five games post Tennessee, when they face the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs and Buccaneers. All of these teams will be jockeying for postseason positioning and present a tough challenge. If they can win at least three, they should be fine, but I do not envy the road ahead for the Bolts.
Outlook: Sunny (with a sense of impending doom)
#7: Denver Broncos (5-4)
This is where the bubble gets interesting. As shown in a 41-10 drubbing from Baltimore, this team is not a championship contender. That’s okay. They weren’t supposed to be. However, they are in play for a playoff spot, which could be huge in developing the third-youngest roster in the league. None of the other teams in the AFC jump out as someone who can swoop in and steal this spot. Well, except one… The Bengals. The Bengals may be two spots behind but they ooze the talent needed to jump the Broncos. Plus, Denver still has to play the Chiefs twice and has another matchup with the Chargers whom they lost to 23-16. This team seems destined for a respectable 9-8 record. Will that be enough?
Outlook: Happy for them to be here
#8: Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
The Colts are back on the bubble for Week 10, but things are looking much grimmer than they did three weeks ago. Sure, they got Anthony Richardson back, but that just made things way worse. I mean, it’s a bad look when your supposed franchise QB pulls himself from the game for fatigue, even worse when he gets sacked on a hail mary attempt with only three pass rushers. Then, his replacement in Joe Flacco looks EVEN WORSE. The Colts QB room is imploding, and it’s wasting some legitimately solid defensive efforts from Dayo Odeyingbo and a returning Deforest Buckner. Indy plays the Bills and Lions in two of their next three games before one of the easiest late season schedules I have ever seen. They still need to play at a level we haven’t seen from them all season if they want to stay alive in the playoff picture. They already booted away the division and cannot afford to fall games back in the wild card as well.
Outlook: Can we get Andrew Luck back?
#9: Cincinnati Bengals (4-5)
Welcome the Bengals to the bubble! After toiling away in the basement of the AFC, they are finally back into contention for a playoff spot. This trend of the Bengals underachieving for the first half of the season before catapulting into a playoff spot is very weird, and makes it hard to eulogize their season just yet. But, this is the worst record they have had going into Week 10 in the Joe Burrow era apart from his rookie year (which, let’s be honest, we have all forgotten about). Their four wins came against Las Vegas, Cleveland, Carolina, and the New York Giants which is NOT inspiring whatsoever. They are also 1-4 when playing in Cincinnati…. yikes! One would expect this front office to be very aggressive in trying to fix this team. However, AFC teams with much better records and much less to lose (namely KC, Buffalo, and Baltimore) made trades to make themselves better while the Bengals stood pat. They sit three games back for the AFC North but have yet to play the division-leading Steelers. A sweep of Pittsburgh could catapult them into contention for their third divisional title in four years, but they must right the ship now before even the wild card becomes a long shot.
Outlook: (Marty McFly voice:) Hey, I’ve seen this one!
NFC
#6: Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)
In my last column, I mentioned how the Eagles were set up well to go on a run, as they don’t play a single team with a winning record until Week 11. So far, that is holding true as the Eagles shut down the Giants, embarrassed the Bengals at home and held their own against the Jags. The best part? It’s not even Week 11 yet. Currently, the Eagles face the Cowboys in Dallas with the indication that Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb will not be playing. They should be 7-2 going into a crucial game against Washington. I don’t see the Commanders stopping 3x NFC Offensive Player of the Week Saquon Barkley, and Quinyon Mitchell should eliminate Terry McLaurin from their offensive game plan. Win that one and the Eagles could head into the bye week 8-2 and with the division in hand. Not bad at all.
Outlook: At cruising altitude.
#7: Green Bay Packers (6-3)
This might be the first season that the #7 seed is a trap game. It seems like every week an NFC North team does the do-si-do with another NFC North team around the Eagles. As they head into their bye week, I get the sense that the Packers fate will come down to getting hot at the right time. I mean we’ve seen them come one drive away from an NFC championship game and they are playing quite well. However, Green Bay has yet to put together a truly complete football game. Look at the Lions game, the Packers outgained them by 150 yards and were more efficient on a play by play basis and they lost by ten. The offense couldn’t stop getting penalized, receivers dropped the ball and Jordan Love threw a pick six as the first half expired on a play where he should have thrown it away. This team has so much youthful talent, but their lack of discipline may lead to playoff misfortune.
Outlook: Can we be in any other division please
#8: Chicago Bears (4-4)
Well the Chicago Bears went from Grizzly to Fozzie in about two weeks, thanks to a Jayden Daniels hail mary for the ages and an Arizona blowout. I won’t say it killed their season, but it definitely set them back. They get the Patriots next who are bottom of the barrel. The Bears defense should be able to stifle the Patriots seeing as they neutralized a very similar offense in Carolina, but the offense needs to step up. Putting up 30+ points against the two teams ranked last (Carolina and Jacksonville) in defensive-adjusted value over average, or DVOA, should not ease any concerns, and neither should a big performance against New England (30th in DVOA). The play calling has been suspect, the offensive line even more so, and Caleb Williams is still figuring things out. Still, this is the best the Bears have been in years but unfortunately their playoff hopes lie in divisional games that will be challenging.They get their first divisional match Nov. 17 vs. Green Bay.
Outlook: A sense of impending doom
#9: San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
Now what did I say about Tampa Bay last time?
“Are the Bucs the most underrated team in the league?”
“ I think they need not worry about “the bubble” and should be contending with the Falcons for the NFC South.”
Woof.
Well the 49ers have kicked the Bucs out of the bubble and will be matching up against them this Sunday. The Bucs held their own and took the Chiefs to overtime, but the 49ers may be a different beast then we are used to. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings are practicing which spells terror for the rest of the NFC. The Bucs, meanwhile, are relying on Cade Otton as their best pass catcher. But let’s look at the big picture here, the 49ers, in spite of their injury-imposed mediocrity, are a half game back from a playoff spot. The NFC West is anybody’s for the taking. They have the best defense in the division by EPA, PPG, and DVOA. They have the best offense in the division by the same measures. They just need to get the job done.
Outlook: NFC West or Bust.