Thanksgiving time has come and gone with some very big moves in the playoff picture. The biggest being that two teams have locked themselves into the NFL playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills. While both those teams making the playoffs may have been a forgone conclusion for weeks now, it’s the first sign that the playoff picture is becoming solidified. Who will make a late season push? Who will fall off the wagon? The answers to all these questions lie in another edition of Bursting the NFL Bubble.
What is the bubble?
Before we get back into the bubble, let’s remind ourselves of what the bubble actually is. The bubble consists of the last two teams in and the first two out for each conference. Right now, this seems a tad arbitrary. But as the season winds down, it will be much harder for teams to jump two or three seeds into a playoff spot. Anyways, now that we know what the bubble is, let’s discuss who is on it.
AFC
#6: Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
The Ravens are in a good spot, not a great spot, but a good spot nonetheless. They are two games up on 8th place with four games left in their schedule. However, with a top ten offensive line, a reigning MVP and talent galore at the skill positions, being two games out of the division is very disappointing. They still have a game against the Steelers in Week 16 to pull closer and Pittsburgh still has to play Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Kansas City over the course of 10 days. The Steelers winning multiple games in that brutal stretch of high-quality opponents seems unlikely and gives the Ravens a fighting chance for the division. All five of the Ravens’ losses have come when Lamar Jackson’s passer rating was under 110. They need Lamar to play his very best in order to take the AFC North.
#7: Denver Broncos (8-5)
Broncos country, let’s ride! (To the playoffs). The Broncos took care of business against two teams with losing records (Las Vegas and Cleveland), pushing their record against such teams to 6-0. Are they also 0-5 against teams with winning records? Yes. But hey, it’s all about making the playoffs and the Broncos are on track to do so. They have a bye week before their most important game in that quest, a Week 15 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. If they win that, they will be three games up with three games left and would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. It’s gonna be a popcorn-worthy game.
#8: Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
I do not want to beat a dead horse (or colt), so I won’t rehash the turbulent season that Indy has had. Instead, I will look forward to how WIDE OPEN it is for the Colts to sneak into the playoffs. As previously mentioned, they need to beat the Broncos in order to have a fighting chance. But after that, it becomes incredibly easy. They play the Jaguars, Giants and Titans who have a combined total of (drum roll please) SEVEN wins. Mac Jones, Drew Lock and Will Levis should be bar-be-cue chicken for a Colts defense that needs a pick-me-up. Speaking of QBs, shoutout to Anthony Richardson for his absolute clutch play against the Patriots. Is it scary that it took them four quarters to beat New England? A bit, but hey, good on ya kid.
#9: Miami Dolphins (5-7)
If you were casting for the Broadway adaptation of Frozen, the Miami Dolphins would be last on your list of potential candidates. The cold seems to really bother them, anyway. Jokes aside, losing 12 games in a row in sub-40 degree temperatures is becoming more than just a funny coincidence and instead a serious character flaw. The Dolphins are still kicking (swimming?) but need so much help to make it into the playoffs. They’ll likely need to win out, have the Colts beat the Broncos, and hope both teams lose at least one game. The Dolphins winning out is somewhat likely, as their only tough opponent is a matchup against the Texans. But with so much in the air, all they can do is pray to a higher power for a playoff spot.
NFC
#6: Green Bay Packers (9-3)
Over the course of five days, the Packers played the best football they have all season. They outscored two stout teams in San Francisco and Miami by a combined total of 68-27. I feel bad even calling them a bubble team, as they are three games above the cutline with five games to go. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be smooth sailing into the playoffs. They have the most important game of their season tonight against Detroit. If they beat the Lions, they will pull within one game of the divisional title. The Packers will need a ton of help as the Lions still hold the tiebreaker of a better record within the division BUT the Lions have the third hardest remaining schedule. With matchups against Buffalo, Minnesota, San Francisco and a Chicago team that was one timeout from taking them to overtime, the Lions could stand to lose this division. The Packers just need to pull close and that campaign starts on Thursday.
#7: Washington Commanders (8-5)
Remember when the Commanders led the NFC East? Yeah that was fun. Alas, their loss to Philadelphia and a subsequent loss to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys has pretty much vanquished those early season hopes. The Commanders offense rediscovered their spark on Sunday, scoring 42 points against Tennessee. This was the first time that they scored 30+ points since October, a feat that they accomplished five times before then. I’m sure it comes to no surprise that the Commanders are 6-0 when this happens, and it points to the trend that when Washington plays at their offensive peak they are unbeatable. However, when they aren’t, they are very beatable. At the moment, they are 1.5 games ahead of Tampa Bay. This seems like a solid cushion but with Washington’s Week 14 bye, a Tampa win against Las Vegas will put them within striking distance. Washington gets an easy matchup against New Orleans in week 15 but the margin for error is very slim.
#8: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)
A rout of the Giants and an unconvincing win over the Panthers has put the Buccaneers back in the playoff picture. While I am unimpressed with how Tampa Bay has played as of late, they are one of few teams outside the playoffs that actually control their own fate. You see, in Week 17 the Atlanta Falcons play the Washington Commanders in a game that by its very existence will lock the Buccaneers into the playoffs IF they win out. If the Falcons lose, Atlanta will be a game behind the Buccaneers thus handing the NFC South to Tampa Bay. If the Commanders lose, they will have a tied record with the Buccaneers and will be bumped out because Tampa Bay has a better record within the NFC. Tampa Bay winning out is a massive IF, but they have the fifth-easiest schedule and they play only one team with a winning record, the Chargers. Winning five games in a row is hard, but Tampa Bay is set up very well to do it.
#9: Arizona Cardinals (6-6)
Welcome back to another episode of “NFC West team that is underperforming yet in the hunt for the division”. This time, it’s the Arizona Cardinals, who once had the division in the palm of their hands, er, wings. But losses to the Seahawks and the Vikings have soiled a positive 6-4 start and a spot in the playoff picture. The Cardinals have suffered from conservative play calling from their coaching staff, penalties, and turnovers. On fourth down at the Minnesota 4, they could have gone up ten with 3:20 left in the game but instead chose to kick a field goal. When the Vikings scored a touchdown to take the lead, Kyler Murray proceeded to fumble the ball and two plays later throw a game-sealing pick. These issues cannot be fixed by a scheme change, talent or luck, they are spiraling. Luckily, they play one team with a winning record over the last five games, giving them an outside shot to win the division. Even luckier, that one team is the division-leading Seattle Seahawks. if they win that game and finish off their divisional opponents, they will win the division and make the playoffs. However, they need to clean up the mistakes and let their talent spread its wings.