There are three weeks left in the NFL season, which means it’s crunch time for many teams who haven’t locked up a spot for the NFL playoffs. As it stands, there are seven spots remaining (three in the AFC, four in the NFC) and five spots can be clinched this week. Every game matters, but these next three will be the most important of the season for our bubble teams. Let’s dive into another edition of Bursting the NFL Bubble.
What is the bubble?
Before we get back into the bubble, let’s remind ourselves of what the bubble is. The bubble consists of the last two teams in and the first two out for each conference. With just three weeks left, there are only a few teams left who can grab a spot and these teams represent the most likely to snag one. Anyways, now that we know what the bubble is, let’s discuss who is on it.
AFC
#6: Denver Broncos (9-5)
The Broncos took care of business Sunday afternoon by beating the No. 8 seed Colts and virtually ensuring their place in the NFL playoffs. I say virtually because the only scenario that Denver doesn’t make the playoffs is if they lose out. It’s entirely possible given that they face the Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs, who are pretty good at football by most metrics. However, the Chiefs will likely rest their starters Week 18 if they lock up the No. 1 seed, and the Chargers are on a two-game losing skid. I’ll keep an eye on Denver, but I expect the Broncos to harness their outstanding defense and make life hell for any quarterback who tries to thwart their playoff hunt.
#7: Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
I don’t want to call their game against the Broncos a must win. However, winning this game gets the Chargers so much closer to locking up a playoff spot. Losing opens up Pandora’s Box. The Chargers really weren’t supposed to be here, they were 7-3 and had control over the No. 5 seed going into Week 11. But losing to the Ravens, Chiefs, and getting blown out of the water by the Buccaneers has put them in a precarious position. One could easily point to an offense that is lacking the talent to be explosive but good lord, how do you give up 200 yards rushing to Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. The Chargers are in a good spot for the long term, as they have all of their draft picks, $75 million in cap space and Justin Herbert. Plus, they are still two games up on any wild card challenger. But they are a long way away from the team that they need to be if they want to bring a championship to Los Angeles.
#8: Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
The Colts had it, man. Jonathan Taylor broke through the right side of the offensive line at the Denver 41. Scampering past some great blocking, Taylor ran up the sideline and into the endzone for a touchdown. 20-7 Colts. But wait, Taylor dropped the ball at the one yard line while celebrating the run. Millions of Americans watched in slow motion as the ball tumbled out of the endzone for a touchback and a two-possession lead was wiped away. I won’t say this killed the Colts playoff chances, but it was a huge momentum shift in an almost must-win game. Now they lay two games back of the Chargers and NEED them to lose against Denver. The Colts still have a very easy schedule and have a real shot at ending the season on a three game win streak. The question is, how far will the other teams fall?
#9: Miami Dolphins (6-8)
The last time the Dolphins were in the same boat as the Colts was in Noah’s Ark. Biblical jokes aside, the Dolphins are also two games back with a much harder schedule than the Colts. They face the Jets and 49ers, two teams with top ten defenses in terms of yards allowed. I have a hard time believing that the Dolphins can win all three games AND the Chargers lose two of their next three. It’s tough for a Dolphins team that was legitimately good this year. They had a top of the line defense and a great offense when it was led by Tua Tagovailoa. Unfortunately, the Dolphins went 1-4 while Tua recovered from a concussion with brutal losses to the Titans and Colts. I think if Tua was healthy all season, the AFC playoff picture would be a lot more interesting. But that “if” seems to be getting bigger every year.
NFC
#6: Green Bay Packers (10-4)
The Packers are unfortunately a victim of circumstance. They would win most divisions in most years, however this is the 2024 NFC North not the 2024 NFC West. Luckily, good football is still rewarded, and the Packers record has afforded them quite the luxury. If they win any of their remaining games this season, they are locked into the playoffs. They get their first crack at it against the Spencer Rattler-led New Orleans Saints which, on paper, is a blowout. The Packers could snag the No. 5 seed if they win out and the Vikings lose to the division leading Lions. It would come down to a variety of tiebreakers, but under most scenarios I believe the Packers would get the fifth seed due to strength of victory. However, I am but a lowly student radio host, not Steve Kornacki.
#7: Washington Commanders (9-5)
A dropped two-point conversion by Juwan Johnson and this is a different story. The Commanders blew a 17 point lead to the Saints as Spencer Rattler tore through the Washington defense. They sit one game ahead of the Seattle Seahawks with the Eagles, Falcons and Cowboys left on the ledger. To gauge my confidence level in Washington, one just needs to look to the month of November when they played Dallas and Philadelphia and went 0-2. Not only that, but the Falcons could pull within a game of Washington if they beat them in Week 17. This is a massive stretch for the Commanders and they are not playing their best football. Hopefully, the addition of Marshawn Lattimore can ease some of the defensive woes that have been plaguing them as of late.
#8: Seattle Seahawks (8-6)
The Rams’ torrid three game win streak has pushed the Seahawks out of the playoff picture but not permanently. They still remain tied with the Rams and are headed towards a week 18 matchup against the division leaders. That game will be crucial, especially if Seattle is unable to leapfrog Washington in the wild card. A crucial game for the Seahawks will not be played in Seattle, or even by Seattle. If the Rams lose to the Cardinals, the Seahawks would own a divisional tiebreaker over the Rams. Mind you, they still need to beat the Rams but it ensures that if the two teams finish with a tied record after a Seahawks win, Seattle would win the NFC West. Mind you, the Vikings and Bears stand in their way, and Seattle hasn’t beat a team with a winning record since Week 1. Woof.
#9: Atlanta Falcons (7-7)
Can Michael Penix Jr. save the day? That’s the question lurking in the minds of Falcons fans. After throwing a 34 year old nearly $200 million after tearing his achilles, Atlanta is paying the price. Kirk Cousins has not looked right all season, but in spite of a .500 record, they still have one last shot to win the division. So enter the rookie QB. They own the head to head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay and sit just one game back. The problem? The Buccaneers play the Panthers, Saints and Cowboys who all are in the battle for the #1 pick in next year’s NFL draft. The Falcons have an easy stretch as well aside from the Washington Commanders. Penix Jr. could prove himself to be an incredible NFL-caliber QB, but it could be all for nothing if the Buccaneers win out.