For the last eight years, the Patriot League Championship has consistently run through Hamilton, New York. The Colgate Raiders have created a tradition of dominance, winning five of the last seven Patriot League tournaments. Last year, American put an end to a streak of four straight Raider championships when they knocked off Navy 74-52 in the championship game. This year, Navy has come back with a vengeance, sailing (pun intended) to a 25-6 record and a 17-1 conference mark. With action starting up Tuesday, how will the Patriot League tournament shake out this year?
The Favorite
The clear favorite in this bracket is the Navy Midshipmen, who are looking for their first trip to the Big Dance since 1998. In today’s college sports landscape, Navy is a breath of fresh air: no transfer portal additions or exits, grassroots basketball and true ground-level program building. While working through an incredibly easy schedule, they did put up admirable performances in road losses against Penn State and North Carolina.
The Mids play a similar brand of basketball to that of the Tony Bennett-era Virginia teams of the 2010s. They excel defensively (No. 20 in defensive efficiency nationally) and slow the game down to a snail’s pace while shooting a solid clip from all over the floor. They also protect the defensive glass effectively, ranking in the top 50 in both defensive rebounds per game and defensive rebounding percentage. Their only weak spot this season has been turnovers, where they rank a very average 130th in turnover margin. This is not glaring, but in March could prove to be the difference in a close game.
Navy is led by Patriot League POTY Austin Benigni, who averages 18.1 points and 4.4 assists per game, while shooting a staggering 45.7% from deep. The inside is held down by Patriot League DPOY Aidan Kehoe, who hauls in 11 rebounds per game to go along with 15.4 points per game. Crafty wing players Jinwoo Kim and Jordan Pennick are both capable of explosive performances and bring high-level perimeter defense. Overall, if the Midshipmen play as they usually do, they should lock up a spot come Selection Sunday.
Contenders
Of course, this is March, and one thing you can never count on is expectations. If there is anyone that is going to play spoiler in this tournament, it will be Colgate. The Raiders played a stacked schedule this year, taking on the likes of Michigan State, Florida, Illinois, Cornell and St. Bonaventure in non-conference play. This group also knows a thing or two about the clutch, playing in five (five!!) overtime games this season. Of their seven conference losses, five have come by four points or less.
The three-pronged attack of first-team point guard Jalen Cox, Patriot League ROTY forward Andrew Alekseyenko and forward Sam Wright does the most work offensively, but nearly everyone in the rotation is a capable shooter. Despite the best scoring offense in the league, the Raiders have been mediocre defensively, sitting in the middle of the league in most defensive and rebounding metrics. If they want to bring about another dynasty in Hamilton, the Raiders will need to tighten up their perimeter defense and outmatch their opponents offensively.
Outside of Navy and Colgate, Lehigh looks poised to make a run. The Mountain Hawks claimed two one-point wins over Colgate this year and took Navy down to the wire in an overtime loss at home. First-team selection Nasir Whitlock and Junior Joshua Ingram combine effectively in guard roles, while center Hank Alvey adds excellent post and perimeter skill.
Looking at their schedule, they play to the level of their opponents and have lost multiple games that they frankly should have won. Statistically, if there is one thing to point to, it’s rebounding. Lehigh ranks last in rebound margin, and guards often struggle to box out. This is a volatile team, but if they protect the glass and work through Nasir Whitlock, they are as good as anyone in the league.
Dark Horses
To be the best, you have to beat the best, and that’s exactly what American did on January 12 when they handed Navy their only loss of conference play. If there is one thing the Eagles do well, it’s holding onto the ball. They lead the league in turnover margin and spread out their offense well. They aren’t the most skilled or tall roster, which has its drawbacks, but as we’ve seen, they can win big games if the right things happen. Look for forward Julen Iturbe to play a key role.
For the Boston Terriers, the key word is depth. 11 players average 10 or more minutes on their roster, and in the marathon that is March, that can go a long way. Michael McNair, a first-team selection, is the guy to watch here. He leads the team in scoring and is a tough guy to beat on defense. The Terriers have the best shooting percentages of anyone in the league, but they also carry the worst turnover margin and often struggle defending the perimeter.
Outsiders
Rebounding is the key ingredient in any recipe for an upset. Loyola Maryland rebounds decently well, and against Colgate’s so-so board crashing there could be the potential for a surprise.
Key player: Freshman F Emmett Adair
Lafayette swept Holy Cross this year, but Lehigh has them overmatched. Four players average 10 or more ppg, which is a formula for success, unless you’re 11-20.
Key player: Freshman G Caleb Williams (not the one you’re thinking of)
Last year’s one seed, Bucknell came crashing down to Earth this year. Besides free throws, there’s not much on the table. Expect an early exit.
Key player: Freshman C/F Amon Dörries
Army West Point knocked off Lehigh twice this season. Potential Cinderella or matchup luck? You decide.
Key player: Junior G Ryan Curry
Did you know Holy Cross has a national championship? Well, this team is a looong way from that.
Key player: Sophomore G Tyler Boston
My picks
Like many other small conference tournaments, Patriot League tournament games are played at the home gym of the higher seed. If history is any indicator, the top seeds tend to have the most luck. As if Navy’s defense wasn’t enough, anyone coming to Annapolis will have to contend with a few thousand screaming Midshipmen.
American and Boston will meet Thursday in the quarterfinals, with American winning their most recent matchup February 28 in a nailbiting 68-65 thriller. I have American picking up the road win and traveling to face Navy in the semifinals. The Mids rank 136th in the KenPom rankings, 105 spots higher than the next best team, which happens to be American. Navy wins.
I think Colgate will knock off Loyola and beat Lehigh to advance to the championship. It is Navy’s tournament to win, and I think they’ll do just that. Anchors Away.