The Favorite: High Point
The defending regular season and conference champion Panthers are back for more. After a 29-6 (14-2) 2024-25 campaign, High Point came into 2025-26 with lofty expectations. High Point lost just one game in conference play this season, splitting home and away with Winthrop. The Panthers’ up-tempo attack has proven to be sustainable at this level – they haven’t lost a game this season when scoring 85+ points. The Panthers thrive in transition and attacking the basket, ranking second in the country in fastbreak points per game and boasting the NCAA-best turnover margin. Terry Anderson (15.8 PPG) is one of four Panthers averaging double figures, but High Point also brings valuable depth and shooting prowess beyond the top-four scorers. The Panthers come to Johnson City winners of their last 11 games, and will look to win three more to return to the NCAA Tournament.
Not Far Behind: Winthrop
The Big South’s most successful program comes to Johnson City seeking its 14th Big South title and first since 2021. Winthrop split the regular season series with High Point, but dropped two more games to finish second in the regular season standings. The Eagles are the conference’s best rebounding team, anchored by 6’10 center Logan Duncomb (18.4 PPG, 9.4 RPG). The Eagles’ defense has struggled mightily down the stretch of the regular season, resulting in shootout losses to High Point and Charleston Southern, and it will need more from their offense. Winthrop doesn’t turn the ball over often – which is essential against High Point – and will need its outside shooting to catch fire.
Dark Horse: Charleston Southern
Legendary NFL coach Bill Parcells once proclaimed that “you are what your record says you are”, which I usually tend to agree with… UNTIL I dug into the 2025-26 Charleston Southern Buccaneers. Despite a 6-10 record in conference play, I believe the seven seed Buccaneers are the only team who can truly challenge the top dogs, having split the season series with Winthrop and having taken High Point to overtime. Of Charleston Southern’s 10 conference losses this season, five were in overtime and two more were by just four points each. The Buccaneers play style lends itself towards the “any given day” variance needed to go on a surprising three game run in a conference tournament as a lower seed. They boast the conference’s top scorer A’lahn Sumler (18.8 PPG), as well as an additional top-five scorer in Brycen Blaine (17.5 PPG). They defend the two-pointer the best of anyone in the conference (46.6%), allow three point attempts at the seventh lowest rate in the nation, and shoot and make threes at high rates as well, the perfect profile for variance and making up margins against better teams. If Charleston Southern can lower their turnover rate and knock down some timely free throws (65% as a team… yikes!), don’t be surprised if the Buccaneers go on a run deep into this tournament.
Who Invited This Guy?: Gardner-Webb
I had to take the opportunity to write about Gardner-Webb, who I believe to be the worst team in all of men’s college basketball this season. Gardner-Webb won just one game this season against Division I competition, a 67-65 defeat of USC Upstate on January 23. They won as many games against DI competition as they lost to non-DI competition, as Division II North Greenville handed Gardner-Webb an 11 point loss back in November. The Runnin’ Bulldogs allowed 100+ points on five occasions and lost by as many as 55 to High Point. Most predictive metrics place Gardner-Webb as the fifth worst team in the sport, but all four teams below them (Delaware State, Coppin State, Western Illinois and Mississippi Valley State) at least have multiple DI wins! UMKC ranks just two spots ahead of Gardner-Webb, the only other team in Division I to not record multiple DI wins this season.
My Pick: High Point over Winthrop
I really wanted to pick Charleston Southern to go on a run, but unfortunately the Buccaneers run into Winthrop in the opening round on Friday. If the Buccaneers had a game before Winthrop to build some momentum, perhaps I would’ve gone with the upset, but I think Winthrop is the better team on a neutral floor and should advance. Otherwise, I expect a very chalky bracket. High Point dominated the conference all season, and Winthrop cleared third place by four games, setting up a rematch of last year’s title game. I believe much would have to go right for Winthrop to pull off the upset on a neutral floor, so I’ll roll with the Panthers to go back-to-back.
High Point → 13 seed in NCAA Tournament