In its final year of existence, the Western Athletic Conference tournament is set to be a fun one. A precursor to the Mountain West and Pac-12, this conference once housed NCAA tournament stalwarts Arizona, BYU, New Mexico and Utah.
In recent years the conference has been dominated by New Mexico State and Grand Canyon, who combined to earn every bid to the Big Dance since 2017. Both of these teams have since departed the conference for greener pastures, leaving a wide open field for the remaining seven members.
In July 2023 it was announced that the WAC would enter into a deal with the Atlantic Sun conference, forming a new conference, the United Athletic Conference. An already active conference in football, the UAC will make the move to a full-member, multi-sport conference this fall. This was a necessary move to keep the conference afloat; Utah Valley and California Baptist both depart for the West Coast Conference next year, and Southern Utah and Utah Tech will also move to the Big Sky.
Through all of this inter-conference diplomacy and NCAA dealmaking, one question remains: who will claim the last-ever Western Athletic Conference championship?
The Favorites
The two best teams in the conference, ironically, are the tandem leaving the league for the WCC next year. Cal Baptist and Utah Valley traded off the top spot throughout the season, with Utah Valley beating the Lancers in two of three matchups (every team in the conference plays each other three times).
Both teams are seeking their first NCAA tournament appearance. The Wolverines secured the regular season title last week in a double overtime thriller over Utah Tech, earning them the one seed.
For Utah Valley, Trevan Leonhardt averages a league-leading 6.1 assists per game, and WAC defensive player of the year Jackson Holcombe, who is listed as a guard, leads the team in points, rebounds and steals with a playing style that flashes shades of Giannis Antetokounmpo. This duo is also one and two in the conference in steals per game. Combine that with the services of sharpshooting UCF transfer Tyler Hendricks and a strong frontcourt rotation and you have a squad that looks ready for March.
The Wolverines excel on the defensive glass, and shape most of their offensive game around highly effective 2-point shooting. They slow the game down defensively, and find good shots in transition through quick-hitting sets. They’ve also punched above their weight class schedule wise, picking up some solid wins against the likes of UC Irvine, South Dakota State, UC Santa Barbara, and a blowout performance over a decent Samford squad.
They’re 85th in the KenPom rankings, locking down a top-60 defensive efficiency rating to go along with solid offensive numbers. They often play in a 1-3-1 zone, utilizing their length and speed to slow down opponents and limit opportunities. Their one blemish is turnovers. They are top 15 nationally in turnovers forced and bottom 30 in turnovers allowed. They’ll win rebounding battles, but when they don’t hold on to the ball, they run into trouble.
In addition, while irrelevant in the neutral settings of March, Utah Valley has not lost a game at home since March 2nd, 2024. Talk about a home court advantage. All in all, when you look at the trends, the schedule, the playing style and metrics, this Wolverines team has all of the ingredients to win a few games in March.
Looking to derail the Wolverines are the Lancers of Cal Baptist. They hopped up from Division II a few years ago, and have found little success in the big leagues until this year. The key to their success? Dominique Daniels Jr.
Undersized and underrecruited, Daniels Jr. transferred in from junior college in 2023 and hasn’t looked back since. The 5-foot-10 conference player of the year is eighth in the nation in scoring. Despite his stature, he is one of the most elite dribble-drivers in the country, and utilizes some crafty bagwork and strong mid-range ability to score from multiple levels. He leads the team in assists, though the Lancers are bottom 10 in the country in assists per game. Iso ball is king, and Daniels Jr. needs to be on his game for the Lancers’ postseason hopes.
Outside of DDJ and guard Martel Williams, there hasn’t been much to speak of offensively for the Lancers. They don’t have a clear-cut third option, which could be a pro or con depending on the matchup. However, the strength of this team is defense.
Simply put, the Lancers do not allow the three-ball. To beat CBU, teams have to flow through the inside, and if shots don’t fall, there’s a good chance the board is falling to a Lancer. The team ranks 20th nationally in rebounds per game, and they’ve been exceptional on the offensive glass. In stark contrast with the offense, the Lancers defensive play has been an all out team effort, and it’s worked to a tee. It’s anyone’s guess whether the offense will match that intensity come tournament time, but if it does, Cal Baptist will be a very tough team to beat.
The Middle
Ethan Potter is no wizard, but he cast a spell on the league this year, finishing second in scoring and first in rebounding on his way to a first-team all-conference nod. I’d throw in a Quidditch pun, but I think you get the idea. Anyways, the Utah Tech Trailblazers are a bit of a dark horse in this year’s field. They have the second best offense in the league statistically and one of the worst defenses. They managed to snatch a game from both UVU and CBU and they have a good offensive base, with scoring spread between four players. However, they struggle immensely to defend inside and also rebound at a below average clip.
Transfer guards Jusaun Holt and Noah Bolanga have added much needed perimeter play, but for the Trailblazers to go on a run they will need to tighten up defensively.
UT Arlington has practically been the opposite of Utah Tech, excelling defensively while having an almost nonexistent offense. The Mavericks have the best three-point defense in the country, and acceptable- key word being acceptable- inside defense.
They have been decent rebounding the ball, but that’s where the decency ends. UTA is bottom 20 nationally in field goals attempted and bottom 10 in every three-point shooting category. Any success offensively has been inside but that success is limited. Raysean Seamster is the guy to watch here. He’s been cold down the stretch, and the Mavericks need him to right the ship for their tournament hopes. In his stead, Cash Chavis has stepped in and produced some big games. He’s typically the third or fourth option offensively, but has recently taken over with the season heading to an end.
The Bottom
Southern Utah is like Utah Tech, minus the offensive balance and super cool wizard jokes of Ethan Potter. Its offense is average but capable of heating up. Defensively it is just plain bad. They can rebound at a mediocre level, but its inside defense has been among the worst nationally. Everything revolves around freshman guard and WAC Newcomer of the Year Elijah Duval. He’s a capable passer/scorer but can be loose with the ball at times, affecting his assist-to-turnover ratio. Senior forward Jaiden Feroah adds strong ability in the post, but some role players are gonna have to step it up for the Thunderbirds to make a run.
Tarleton State, despite its 5-13 conference record, is not a team to be taken lightly. Coached by Billy Gillespie, formerly of Texas A&M and Kentucky, the Texans have been dealt a bad hand with injuries this year.
In the offseason, Tarleton hauled in senior transfer Dior Johnson, a former 5-star on the come up following legal trouble in his freshman year and a stint at UCF. He led the nation in scoring until a mid-January injury. He’s since returned, and brought the same form he left with, averaging 25 points per game since returning. The Texans also added Cam McDowell, a first-team all-American in Division II last year. He’s added 14 points per game, a strong second option for a lacking offense.
The Texans have been decent defensively, but their offense plays a fast pace with low quality shooting. Essentially, they play reasonable defense and either run themselves out of games or heat up just enough to knock off opponents. Also worth noting, the Texans have beaten CBU and taken UVU down to the wire twice. They are incredibly hit or miss, but with the ability on their roster and experienced coaching, Tarleton State is not a pushover.
Coming in at dead last in the conference is Abilene Christian. It made March Madness in 2021, knocked off Texas as a 14-seed, and haven’t made the dance since. Like Tarleton State, the Wildcats play decent defense and struggle immensely on the offensive end. Senior forward Bradyn Hubbard leads the team with 16.2 points and 4.6 rebounds per game, but the ‘Cats have not found much success outside of him. Their rebounding stats are horrendous, and offensive efficiency is practically an afterthought. They did pick up a 17-point home win over UVU early in conference play, but that performance was the exception, not the rule.
My picks
If you hadn’t guessed it already, I like Tarleton State over Abilene Christian in the No. 6 versus No. 7 matchup this Wednesday.
In the quarterfinals, I think fourth-seeded UTA’s defense matches up well with the sub-par attack of fifth-seeded Southern Utah, and even the Mavericks’ low-grade offense can score against the Thunderbirds. In the other matchup, I have Tarleton State pulling the upset over third-seeded Utah Tech. Tech won each of the three in-season matchups, but by an average of six points. The Texans have strong guard play and a good defense, while the Trailblazers’ defense leaves much to be desired.
In the semifinals, Utah Valley handles the Mavericks in what I think will be a blowout. In the other matchup, two marquee guards square off in Dior Johnson and Dominique Daniels Jr. The Texans’ offense is mediocre, and the Lancers’ defense is the best in the conference. I think DDJ can handle some on-ball pressure, so I have the Lancers winning in a tightly contested matchup.
Finally, in the championship, I have Utah Valley. It’ll be a close game, but CBU is too dependent on Daniels Jr., not to mention the Wolverines have a fool-proof offensive style and a defense that forces scoring flexibility. The Lancers excel in perimeter defense, but Utah Valley finds the most success inside. I could see DDJ heating up and carrying his team to a victory 2007 Lebron-style, but I don’t think he’s got enough. Wolverines win 75-69 (feeling confident about this one, but don’t quote me).