Every March, millions gather around their televisions to witness one of the great spectacles in sports. They witness the drama, passion and excitement that makes the Big Dance so special, and grumble as they are forced to cross Final Four picks off their brackets at the hands of a feisty mid-major. Upsets make the tournament special, because no one ever really knows when they will happen.
I won’t pretend like I do either, but there are some things to watch for that can hint at a Cinderella run before they ever happen. This article will take a look at some of the right ingredients to crash the dance, and which teams fit that billing.
- Offensive Efficiency
If you take a look at the great tournament runs that underdogs have had, the most shared trend is offensive efficiency. A 2019 NCAA study revealed that of 26 Cinderella teams since 2000, 16 of them had a top-50 KenPom offensive efficiency rating. Of the 10 remaining teams outside that mark, 9 had a top-50 defensive efficiency rating.
The takeaway is simple: If you play effective basketball, you’ve got a shot in March.
- Pace Control
Controlling tempo is everything in tournament games. Peeking into some of this century’s best tournament runs, a good amount of them relied on a slow, controlled tempo that allowed them to find their shots and frustrate opponents.
2018 Loyola Chicago, 2022 St. Peter’s, 2011 VCU and 2023 FAU all played effective defense with a slow and deliberate offensive playing style. When mid-majors try to run with the talent of the top seeds, they often make mistakes and get outplayed. Overall, slow and steady typically wins the race.
- Turnover Battle
Top teams have the talent to make the most of their opportunities. There’s one thing that underdogs cannot do, and that is lose the turnover battle. Of the 26 teams studied by the NCAA, 22 had a positive turnover margin. This goes in tandem with pace, as slower teams often commit less turnovers, and give their opponents fewer chances with the ball.
- Mojo Factor
This is the name I’ve given to that intangible, magical feeling that these teams often have. There’s no metric that can account for the late Sister Jean urging her beloved Loyola Ramblers to the Final Four in 2018. There’s no statistical trends that can replicate the high-flying energy of 2013 Florida Gulf Coast, dubbed “Dunk City.”
Doug Edert, Amir “Aura” Khan, Jack Gohlke, Ali Farokhmanesh, all unknowns who became overnight stars at the hands of March magic. In this tournament, anything is possible, and sometimes it just comes down to a gut feeling.
So what are the teams best suited for Cinderella glory? Truthfully, nobody fits the mold just right, and that’s to be expected. The 10-12 seeds in this tournament are perhaps the strongest they’ve ever been, and any one is capable of turning some heads. Looking at matchups and the metrics listed above, as well as a few other factors, here are my favorites.
The Best Fits
No. 11 South Florida
USF is perhaps the best suited double-digit seed in this tournament to make it past the round of 32. The Bulls rank in the top 60 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and top 30 in turnover margin. They play ridiculously fast and crash the glass hard, sitting third in the nation in offensive rebounds with a top-15 pace.
They will match up very similarly with 6-seeded Louisville, who also runs a guard-centric, motion-heavy offense at a very fast pace. To me, the difference is USF’s Izaiyah Nelson on the inside. He hauls in rebounds like few others, protects the rim with ferocity, and plays well inside and outside the arc. Louisville relies on the three ball to succeed, and they will need shots to fall to beat this high-volume USF squad.
As far as the mojo factor, the Bulls have “Blue Collar Points.” This is an off-the-books statistic kept by the bench that tallies hustle; offensive rebounds, taking charges, deflections, steals and blocks. At the end of the game, the player with the most points gets to don a USF chain and hardhat. It’s speed, constant effort and incredibly effective scoring and rebounding with this bunch.
To sum it all up, Bryan Hodgson has himself a group of junkyard dawgs on the court and they will give anyone forty-plus minutes of you-know-what.
No. 10 Santa Clara
A three-bid West Coast Conference, in this economy?? The Broncos surprised everyone this year by finishing 26-8 and nearly knocking off Gonzaga in the WCC championship game, securing a spot on the right side of the bubble. They rank 23rd in offensive efficiency, 82nd in defensive efficiency and 50th in turnover margin. The forward duo of Elijah Mahi and projected second-round pick Allen Graves is one of the best in the nation.
The Broncos match up with Kentucky in the first round Friday, and the ‘Cats never really found their stride this season. Their $20 million roster dealt with injuries and the team played inconsistent basketball throughout the year, relying heavily on lead guard Otega Oweh to do the dirty work. Santa Clara has all of the metrics of a Cinderella team, but they’ll have to go through Kentucky and likely Iowa State to get to that point.
Honestly, I debated including Santa Clara because there’s no real gleaming Cinderella feature here and they have all of the metrics of a top team. However, the 10-seeded Broncos have not been dancing since 1996, when a young guard named Steve Nash was on the roster. It won’t be an easy path, but this team is certainly capable of making the second weekend and beyond.
No. 13 Hofstra
Really, Hofstra? Trust me, I did not think much of the Pride at first either, but the more you look at their stats and film, the more you like them. Hofstra joins McNeese as one of two bottom-five seeds to rank top-100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They play incredibly slow, but they don’t force a lot of turnovers to match that pace. Coastal Athletic Association player of the year Cruz Davis is the jack of all trades, passing and scoring at elite levels. He dishes to one of the most underrated freshmen in the country Preston Edmead and a host of tall wing players.
As far as their matchup, Alabama boasts a top-5 offensive efficiency and pace, but for a tournament team they are average at best defensively. This sets up an incredibly intriguing pace matchup, one that Hofstra is completely capable of dominating. I would have picked Alabama until yesterday, when it was announced that Aden Holloway, ‘Bama’s second leading scorer, was arrested for marijuana possession. It is yet to be announced whether Holloway will be able to play. There’s uncertainty in the locker room, suspect defensive numbers and a questionable loss to Ole Miss in the Tide’s first game of the SEC tournament. Ripe for an upset.
As far as the unique feature, it’s head coach Speedy Claxton. A Hofstra legend, he decided to return to his alma mater and has led the Pride to their first tournament berth since 2001.
12 Seeds
It was incredibly tough picking one of the 12 seeds, because they all have their own strengths that could play well into an upset run, and there’s not a really great matchup for any of them this year. If I had to pick one from the bunch, it would be Akron. They play a JT Toppin-less Texas Tech team. The Zips have a super efficient offense that knocks down lots of threes and a defense that forces turnovers at a high rate. Unfortunately for them, Tech defends the arc with their lives and the Red Raiders still have a very good backing cast behind the injured Toppin. Also, Akron is 0-3 against teams in the tournament and don’t have a very deep roster. I like them, but don’t cash all your chips on the Zips.
I absolutely love Northern Iowa’s metrics. They play insanely good defense with a bottom-5 offensive pace in the country and a top-50 turnover margin. I’d likely have them in the Sweet Sixteen if they weren’t playing St. John’s first round. The Red Storm could’ve absolutely been a 3 or even a 2 seed this year, finishing the season flaming hot on their way to the Big East title. The Panthers’ weakness is rebounding and St. John’s has some really effective rebounders inside who will likely feast on the offensive glass. Most people are really overlooking Northern Iowa, but I think their slow pace and excellent defense will keep this one much more interesting than expected. Who knows, if shots keep falling like they have for UNI in the last few weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make the second weekend.
McNeese is back in the rodeo for a third straight year, having knocked off 5-seed Clemson in a similar spot last March. The Cowboys rank 91st in offensive efficiency and 48th defensively. They play with a slow pace and hold one of the more experienced rosters of any mid-major in the tournament. The crowning statistic? The best turnover margin in the nation, at +7.3 per game. Also, they have a legitimate diaper dandy in freshman guard Larry Johnson. Once again, I don’t like their matchup. It’s an underseeded Vanderbilt squad that nearly won the SEC, and boasts a top-30 mark in turnover margin. I expect to see a messy game, but Vandy’s talent and forward play *should* get the job done.
There’s one thing Vandy does not have and that’s Amir “Aura” Khan. The boombox-wielding team manager is back for one last year of March glory. He won’t play a factor on the court, but you can best believe he will play a role off of it, and the Cowboys are happy to have him back again.
Lastly, High Point. Just like McNeese they have a ridiculous +7 turnover margin per game. It’s a fast, lights out kind of offense, with all nine guys in the rotation capable of shooting. Not to mention HPU has their own Jack Gohlke on the roster in 26-year-old Chase Johnston. He’s shot 64/132 from behind the arc this year, and is 0/4 from inside. He’s there to shoot threes, and he can heat up despite averaging 12 minutes per game.
High Point and Wisconsin might combine for 180 points when they play Thursday, with both teams shooting the ball incredibly well of late. The Badgers average about 12 made threes per game, and when they shoot over that mark they are almost impossible to beat. These are two teams with lackluster defenses and high volume shooting. Regardless of the result, it will be a super fun one to watch.
Others To Watch
No. 11 VCU – Good metrics on both sides of the ball, playing against an injured North Carolina first round. Rams to the Final Four again?
No. 14 Penn – We are due for a major upset this year, and if anyone’s gonna do it, it would be TJ Power and this Quakers team. I mean seriously, who drops 44 in a conference championship game?
No. 13 Troy – Really good inside play in a year that has been defined by it. Playing against Nebraska, who has never won a tournament game. I can see the headlines already.