Overview

The Big Sky has made for some very interesting conference tournaments in the recent past, as the conference has not had a repeat champion since 2009. In each of the past two seasons, the regular season champion failed to win the tournament, and given the status of the conference, failed to punch a ticket to March. Last season saw No. 7 seed Portland State make a run to the semifinals before falling to eventual champion, the No. 3-seeded Sacramento State.

This year, the conference has been a three-headed monster, with Eastern Washington at the top, followed closely by Northern Arizona and Montana. The Eagles were the preseason favorites, and have performed as such behind the highest scoring duo in the conference. Guards Aaliyah Alexander and Jamie Loera have combined to average 28.3 points, 10.6 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game, along with winning two Conference Player of the Week awards each.

The depth of this conference extends beyond Alexander and Loera, who each have a reasonable case for Conference Player of the Year. Esmeralda Morales, voted preseason MVP, has upped her game in her junior year. The Portland State guard leads the conference in scoring at 17.4 points per game, although the Vikings are languishing at the bottom of the standings. Northern Arizona’s second place standing has been fueled by sophomore forward Sophia Glancey and her 15 points and 7.0 rebounds per game. Both of these rank in the top five of the conference, as does her 53.5 percent shooting from the field, a mark that stands alone as the best in the Big Sky, 

Favorite: Eastern Washington

The Eagles started the season with some good non-conference tests, which led to road losses at UC Irvine and Cal, along with a home loss to likely top-16 Gonzaga. This equipped them well for their conference slate which, after the loss at Cal, saw Eastern Washington rip off 10 straight wins, including a 6-0 start to conference play. They suffered back-to-back losses at Northern Arizona, who probably stands to be their biggest threat, and then a one-point loss at home to Montana State.

Between Alexander and Loera, and also junior Jaleesa Lawrence, the Eagles have a few different scoring options. Interestingly though, have only scored 70 points in a regulation conference game once this season, by far the fewest such occurrences relative to the two other heavy hitters in the conference. Regardless, Eastern Washington has the highest point differential in the league ​​in conference play, and most of the credit goes to a dominant defense that allows just 52.9 points per game. Combining this defense with their trio of guards will make them a tough team to beat in the tournament.

Dark Horse: Montana State

Off the top, the Bobcats are one of two teams to beat Eastern Washington in conference play. This gives them an immediate leg up over all other candidates outside of the main three teams, to win the tournament. They are also one of three teams to have two players in the top 10 in scoring during conference play between Madison Hall and Marah Dykstra. While Dykstra has led the Bobcats in scoring seven times in the last 10 games, they have sputtered recently, as they are 5-5 over that stretch.

Prediction: Northern Arizona over Eastern Washington

This conference has been too bizarre over the multi-year sample to go with the favorite in the tournament. Northern Arizona does things that disrupt Eastern Washington, and they have already beat them once this year. The Eagles play a slow pace, limit possessions and play shutdown defense. Northern Arizona plays faster than anyone else in the Big Sky, scores more points, and critically, shoots the ball efficiently. Additionally, along with the fast pace of play, they draw almost 17 fouls per game and shoot free throws quite well. In the games that Eastern Washington lost, they allowed their opponents to shoot 17.4 free throws per game. The only time they lost while shooting more free throws than their opponent was against Northern Arizona. In that game, however, the Eagles shot 78 percent from the line, while Northern Arizona shot 94%. Despite their regular season success, Eastern Washington will fall to a Northern Arizona team that matches up well against them.

Charlie Creme Bracketology:

Eastern Washington: Automatic Qualifier, No. 14 seed in the Oregon State (Corvallis) pod.