Big South NCAA Tournament Preview
| March 01, 2022 | Sports,
While the Big South may not have an overall incredible pedigree, it has given the NCAA one of its biggest and most surprising teams in the country in the Longwood Lancers. The Lancers have only been a Division One school since 2012, and in the decade of being a Division One program, they had never finished over .500, either overall or in league play.
This year, with Griff Aldrich at the helm, Longwood has only lost only one conference game, and has won its first ever outright regular season Big South title. This has put Longwood in a prime position to make their first ever NCAA tournament appearance, as they are currently slotted as a play-in team, according to ESPN, and a 15 seed in Jerry Palm’s projected bracket.
This is a conference usually dominated by the Winthrop Eagles, a name most NCAA fans would be able to recognize. They went 23-2 overall last year, went into the NCAA Tournament as a 12 seed, and gave Villanova a scare in the first round. They are 1-11 all time in the NCAA tournament, and have won the Big South Tournament 13 times in its 36-year history. The big question is whether the Lancers continue their regular season dominance, or rather does Winthrop three-peat as tournament champions? Or is there a dark horse that could shock everyone?
Let’s begin by taking a look at some key players heading into the tournament. The conference’s leading scorer is John Micheal-Wright from High Point, who averages 17 PPG. The issue is he has to do most of the scoring all by himself, but he is certainly capable of going off in any given game and taking over. High Point is just not a great team without him on the court, so it will be interesting to see how his minutes will be used.
Next, we look at Drew Pember for UNC Asheville. He averages 15.4 PPG and 6.6 REB, and the Tennessee transfer ranks 3rd in the conference in scoring, second in rebounding, and first in blocked shots. He may be the best overall player in the conference, and will certainly be hard for most opponents to contain.
D.J. Burns for Winthrop is a key player in Winthrop’s great season last year, Burns is simply the most effective scorer in the conference. He averages 15 PPG, and yet he only plays 20.8 minutes per game. The reason for this is the deep rotating roster around him. He shoots a very efficient 63.5% from the field, far and away the best percentage in the conference. Head coach Mark Prosser may use Burns for even more minutes with the games becoming even more important. Burns is the single player that needs to be on everyone’s radar going into the tournament.
Finally, we’ll look at two players both on the Longwood Lancers, Justin Hill and Isaiah Wilkins. While neither player has numbers that truly jump off the page at first glance (13.9 PPG, 4.6 REB, 1.6 SPG for Hill and 12.5 PPG, 6 REB, and 1.6 STP for Wilkin’s,) their combined impact cannot be denied.
Justin Hill is one of less than 20 players nationally who is currently averaging at least 13.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.5 steals. This combo, and the overall depth of the Lancers, is what makes this team truly so dangerous.
The team to beat in this tournament is Longwood, who, despite playing at a slower tempo, is the best offensive team in the league, ranking first in offensive efficiency and 3-point percentage.
But Witnthrop has won eight games in a row and is hot, has been there and done that and has championship pedigree. They are the only team in the conference that ranks top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
The Gardner-Webb Bulldogs, who made the NCAA Tournament back in 2019, have the best defense in the conference. They rank number No. 56 nationally in defensive efficiency – the highest ranking of any Big South team since Winthrop finished No. 20 in 2007-08. This defensive tenacity does make Gardner-Webb a tempting sleeper pick.
It seems pretty clear that the Longwood Lancers and the Winthrop Eagles are the two best teams in this conference. Them meeting in the championship game seems like the most likely scenario, and it would make for a fascinating matchup. I have Longwood and Winthrop meeting in the finals, and though Longwood is the big story and the feel good pick to make their first ever NCAA Tournament, Winthrop has something the Lancers don’t-experience. Both these teams have great depth and coaching, and it should be a game that comes down to the final possession.
Prediction: Winthrop 85, Longwood 83