CJ Cup Preview
| May 01, 2024 | Sports,
Last week’s Zurich Classic ended in a playoff that saw the Irish duo of Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry take home a victory over Chad Ramey and Martin Trainer. The field presents itself as a little better this week at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Though it’s still missing some of the tour’s biggest stars, it has the potential of producing a fun finish. Here are my picks, and more, for this week’s CJ Cup.
Stephan Jaeger
Jaeger secured his first career win earlier this season at the Houston Open, defeating Scottie Scheffler and others. Since then, he missed the cut at The Masters and finished tied for 18th at the RBC Heritage.
TPC Craig Ranch stands at 7,438 yards long, one of the longest on the PGA Tour this season. Jaeger ranks 22nd in driving distance this year, averaging 308.2 yards per drive. He also ranks 28th in strokes gained: off-the-tee. Driving the ball on this course is important because of the challenging fairways and its distance.
The course distance also makes approach shots that much more important. Jaeger ranks 74th in strokes gained: approach shots. TPC Craig Ranch features 552 and 564 yard par-five holes. Jaeger ranks 125th in approaches between 200-225 yards and 82nd in approach shots between 175-200 yards. His driver will surely help him this week and if his approach shots are accurate, Jaeger could certainly contend for his second win of the season.
Mackenzie Hughes
Hughes does not necessarily check either box of being good at long approach shots or driving distance and accuracy, but his work around the greens might cancel all of that out. He ranks fourth in strokes gained: around-the-greens this season, only behind Hideki Matsuyama, Roger Sloan and Aaron Baddeley.
The Canadian has played consistent golf this season, missing only one cut and securing a tie for third at the Valspar Championship as well as a tie for 14th at the Houston Open. His third place finish at the Valspar boosted him to 57th in the FedExCup standings after previously being ranked 71st. Hughes does not need to be perfect this week off the tee, just good enough to get him near the green. He can do the rest of the work from there.
Chad Ramey
Ramey played his best golf of his season so far last week at the Zurich Classic. He fumbled at the finish, with a bad wedge shot on the first playoff hole that ultimately led to their defeat. Despite his poor shot on that hole, he played really good golf.
He putted well and hit multiple good approach shots, as well as many putts. Ramey ranks sixth in strokes gained: putting, which showed last week. If Ramey can muster some approach-shot ability, his putting could bring him to a victory.
Tom Hoge
Nothing about Hoge is particularly exciting, but the 34-year-old is one of the highest ranked golfers in the FedExCup points list in the field this week, ranked at 19th. He has seven top-20 finishes this season, two of which where he finished in the top-10.
Hoge doesn’t necessarily have the driving distance, but he checks the box with approach shots. He ranks second in strokes gained: approach-to-green, only behind Scottie Scheffler. He also ranks top-20 in both of the longer approach-shot stats. If there is a group of golfers who could take on the long approach-shots of TPC Craig Ranch, I would throw Hoge into that category.
Sleepers
Kevin Tway nearly won the Corales Puntacana Championship a couple weeks back. If it weren’t for a Billy Horschel masterclass on Sunday, he very well may have secured his second win. Tway will now make his fifth start of the season, and if his hot streak continues from the Dominican Republic, Tway could secure a higher finish.
Argentinian rookie Alejandro Tosti nearly won the Houston Open that Stephan Jaeger won earlier this season. He’s been hit or miss and has frequently missed the cut. Two of his best finishes have come in his last five starts, playing his best golf recently.
Final Prediction
I’m going to take a shot and say Tom Hoge will win the CJ Cup. His elite approach-shot game will be enough to carry him to victory this week.