Valero Texas Open Preview
| April 04, 2024 | Sports,
Even with a weaker field last week (plus Scottie Scheffler), viewers were provided an exciting finish that was capped off with Stephen Jaeger’s first career win. The PGA Tour will spend its second consecutive week in Texas, this time around at TPC San Antonio with the Valero Texas Open. This field is much stronger than last week’s, which should provide a much more exciting tournament. Here’s a look into who I think could win and more at the Valero Texas Open.
Russell Henley
Henley is off to a good start this season. He finds himself at 35 on the FedExCup points list, the season long standings where points are accumulated based on where you finish. Henley has two top-five finishes this season at the Sony Open and Arnold Palmer. He missed his first cut at The Players three weekends ago, but has scraped together some finishes near the bottom of the leaderboard in every other tournament.
Even with two top-five performances, Henley has only sniffed the winners circle once at the Sony Open, where he finished one shot back of Grayson Murray, Byeong Hun An and Keegan Bradley, which Murray won. After a short hiatus, expect Henley to be at the top of the leaderboard this week. With four previous victories, he certainly knows how to win.
Corey Conners
The 32-year-old Canadian Conners will defend a title for just the second time in his career. He won last season’s Texas Open by one shot, holding off Sam Stevens, Sam Ryder and Matt Kuchar. Want to take a guess on where his first career victory was? That’s right. In 2019, He defeated Charley Hoffman by two strokes to win the 2019 Texas Open. Saying Conners understands how to win here is an understatement.
Conners finds himself at No. 47 in the FedExCup points list, with consistent performances through all eight of his tournaments played. His best finish of the season came at The Players where he finished at a tie for 13. Along with that, he his defending his title, giving him momentum coming into Thursday
On top of all that, Conners has been one of the best ball-strikers on tour this season. Conners ranks sixth in strokes gained: approach to green, as well as second in greens in regulation percentage. The stars may align for the Canadian to win his third tournament of his career.
Rory McIlroy
As long as it’s not one of the four major tournaments, calling McIlroy’s name to win a trophy should not be controversial. The weight of being the tour’s spokesperson may have worn off on him, as he’s only posted one top-20 finish in five starts this season. That came at The Players, where he showed signs of life after sharing the lead with Wyndham Clark and Xander Schauffele after the first day. He completely collapsed with a 73 on the second day, knocking him out of contention.
McIlroy leads the betting odds this week and is by far the biggest name in the field. It seems as if golf fans are always searching for McIlroy’s next big breakthrough and it hasn’t seemed to come yet. He has never won at TPC San Antonio and hasn’t won since last season’s Genesis Scottish Open. I’m not saying winning the Texas Open would be a major breakthrough for McIlroy, but a win a week before The Masters sure would not hurt.
Hideki Matsuyama
I have a hard time saying Matsuyama won’t be competitive in every tournament he plays in. Outside of The Sentry and Pebble Beach, he has been competitive in some way. He cruised to a win at Riviera, securing a three-stroke victory over Will Zalatoris and Luke List to claim his ninth career victory. He’s coming off a tie for sixth at The Players a couple weekends ago, as well as his win and a tie for No. 12 before that.
Matsuyama stands out in two major statistical categories amongst all tour members so far this season. He ranks fourth in strokes gained: tee-to-green, ahead of names like Wyndham Clark and Tony Finau. He’s first in strokes gained: around-the-green, most notably ahead of Scottie Scheffler. Matsuyama’s recent run of form, as well as his work off the tee and to and around the greens, should give him a real shot at his tenth career win this week.
Billy Horschel
Horschel has been pretty inconsistent when it comes to making and missing cuts, but when he does survive past Friday, he’s finishing pretty high on the leaderboard. Minus his finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, he has posted a tie for seventh at the Houston Open, a tie for ninth at The Cognizant and a tie at 12 at The Valspar Championship.
Despite a roller coaster start to his season, he ranks sixth in total strokes gained. He also ranks seventh in greens in regulation percentage.
The Billy we get on Thursday will determine where we find him on Sunday. He might be streaky, but if we get the Billy we saw at last weekend’s Houston Open, Horschel could find his way to the top of the leaderboard.
Sleeper
Akshay Bhatia put himself in contention last weekend at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, at one point holding the lead at 10-under-par. He finished at nine-under and tied for eleventh, his highest finish on the season. He has a singular win at the 2023 Barracuda Championship, but has only mustered one top 10 finish since. Last weekend’s performance was his second best performance since his win and he was second in the field in strokes gained: approaches, so improved finishes could be on the way.
I’m Hesitant…
Collin Morikawa has been pretty quiet this season. He finished in a tie for fifth at The Sentry, but hasn’t provided any noteworthy finishes (to his standards) so far this season. His last big-time performance was at the ZOZO Championship last October, where he finished six strokes ahead of Eric Cole and Beau Hossler. Because he’s been so off-and-on this year, I would not expect Morikawa to be in the winners circle this week.
My Final Prediction
This is a much more improved field than some of the last few weeks, so which should provide an entertaining finish. I anticipate former Masters winner Hideki Matsuyama to find himself with the trophy by Sunday’s end. He’s been one of the most consistent finishers this season, with a win and many high finishes to tag along.