With the calendar turning to November, it is officially College Football Playoff season, as the first rankings were released Tuesday night. There is always controversy that comes with these rankings, especially the first release of the season, that has fans and national pundits yelling at the television.
This season, the committee is weighing specific metrics more than they have in the past. Specifically, strength of record, which adds value to playing high-level competition and losing, rather than playing an easy schedule and blowing everyone out. This, combined with eye tests, strength of schedule and offensive/defensive statistical rankings are what determine the rankings which are announced each week.
These rankings are quite different from the Associated Press Top 25, with big disparities between rankings for teams such as Iowa, Pittsburgh, Utah and Memphis; with Utah’s and Iowa’s being the most important for a possible at-large bid.
Big 12 is a Big Winner
It felt like a long shot coming into this season that there would be enough separation in the Big 12 to get two teams in, but with BYU at No. 7, Texas Tech at No. 8 and Utah at No. 13, at least two teams from the conference should be in.
All the Big 12 needs to get two teams into the dance is for the loser of this weekend’s huge matchup between the Red Raiders and the Cougars to win a rematch in the Big-12 Championship, assuming they take care of business the rest of the regular season.
The wild-card team in this race is Utah, and its placement was a surprise. Despite losses to both its rivals in Provo and the high-flying Tech offense, Utah has done enough with the rest of its schedule to warrant being ranked high, including blowouts of Arizona State and Cincinnati.
The three team scenario is a long shot but within the realm of possibility. Assuming the two-team scenario mentioned above plays out, Utah would first need to win the rest of their games against inferior competition convincingly and then hope for chaos. Then, it would likely require Texas to lose to Georgia and Texas A&M, Oklahoma to lose to Alabama, and either Notre Dame to lose one game or Oregon to lose two of their remaining four for the committee to consider opening the door for Utah.
It’s unlikely, but this wasn’t even supposed to be possible for the Big 12.
ACC: Only One Bid?
The carnage that has transpired in the ACC could not be more detrimental to the conference’s hopes of seeing multiple teams in the Playoff.
Right now, Virginia is the highest-ranked team at No. 14, followed by Louisville at No. 15, Georgia Tech at No. 17, Miami at No. 18 and Pittsburgh at No. 24. It is difficult to see a world where two teams climb into the top 10 and both conference championship teams make it in.
So, that leads to the conversation of who makes the ACC Championship. Virginia currently is in first with a 5-0 conference record (its 35-31 loss to North Carolina State is considered non-conference due to both teams only playing each other once between 2025 and 2030), and then there is a jumble of one-loss teams in Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Louisville, SMU and Duke. Miami, with two conference losses, is likely already out of the picture, which leaves it without much of a path to the playoff after early season wins over Notre Dame and South Florida and not leaving the state of Florida until this past weekend.
The games which will likely decide the championship matchup are Virginia vs. Duke (Nov. 15), Louisville vs. SMU (Nov. 22) and Pitt vs. Georgia Tech (Nov. 22).
Hurricanes topped by sunshine and rainbows
Miami’s placement at No. 18 shows the committee values recent play and eye test more than early season head-to-head losses
In Week 1, Notre Dame traveled to Coral Gables and lost on the road to the Hurricanes. With identical 6-2 records, one would think that win puts Miami ahead of Notre Dame, but instead the committee put so much distance between the two that it doesn’t even factor in. Why?
Notre Dame’s losses occurred at the very beginning of the season, and it has since won six straight. Miami on the other hand, started off 5-0 and have since lost two of its three. Combined with the committee’s low value of the ACC as a whole, Notre Dame simply gets the benefit of being hot at the right time.
This is the one of the few instances where the committee seemed to throw head-to-head out of the equation.
Red River Troubles
Despite Texas struggling all season, the Longhorns have stayed afloat with convincing wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt which have warranted a No. 11 ranking, just on the outside looking in because of conference championship auto bids. Oklahoma is right behind at No. 12 after going to Tennessee and coming out with a win.
Both teams have significant résumé-bolstering opportunities in November. Texas will play at Georgia and at home against rival Texas A&M. Oklahoma will travel to Alabama next week.
If they both win out, they’re in. But with their difficult schedules, it is hard to see that coming to fruition. That brings up the question whether either team can get in with three losses.
Looking at what Oklahoma has remaining, it likely wouldn’t get in with three losses. A loss at Alabama isn’t a bad loss, but there might not be enough strength left on the schedule after that, with Missouri playing its third-string quarterback and LSU having already fired their head coach.
Texas, though, is the one team in the country that might get in with three losses. If it beats just one of Georgia or Texas A&M, that win will be far greater than any one of the wins from the teams behind it, and the committee isn’t going to punish the Longhorns for an early season loss at No. 1 Ohio State and another to Georgia or Texas A&M.
You have to imagine only one of these two teams will have a shot to get into the playoff — unless utter chaos occurs — and that team is likely Texas.
Two-loss Big-10 teams sandwiched at the bottom
Creeping along at the bottom of the rankings are the teams most likely to make the jump from pretender to contender: No. 19 Southern California, No. 20 Iowa, No. 21 Michigan and No. 23 Washington.
All four teams have the opportunity to make the biggest rise out of anyone in these rankings, simply because of the opponents left on their schedules. USC, Iowa and Washington all play the Oregon Ducks in November. Michigan will host Ohio State in “The Game” during the last week of the season. USC and Iowa will play each other in two weeks.
Despite the low rankings, the quality of competition left on their schedule could allow one of them to make the jump into the top 10.
Ducks swimming in rough waters
The Ducks have one of the hardest November schedules in the country and it all starts this week at Iowa.
The committee looked at Oregon’s schedule and said it has lost to the only good team it has played. With a 30-20 loss to Indiana, you look at the rest of the schedule and there’s really no win that stands out — maybe the win at Penn State, but that win continues looking worse and worse for the Ducks, even though they may have caused the Nittany Lions’ spiral.
Can Oregon afford a second loss? Probably — depending on who that loss is to and whether Iowa, USC and Washington continue playing at a high level. But no question Oregon can’t lose two more, or else that opens the door for other at-large teams.
It’s truly wonderful as a college football fan to have so many teams in contention for a playoff spot. There has to be at least 20 teams talking about a potential playoff run, and the beauty of this sport is that it will all work itself out.
Or certain fan bases will melt down. Hey, 2023 Florida State!