No matter what sport you are watching, the Big 12 keeps two things consistent. It may not be the best, it may not have the national contenders, but the conference will be deep and y’all the conference will be fun. Women’s hoops is absolutely no exception. With 11 out of 16 teams holding a winning record and nine of those having 20 or more wins, this feels like it could be anyone’s conference. But someone has to win, considering that is how tournaments work. No one wants to read this intro anymore, let’s get into the teams I find the most interesting in this tournament.
The Favorites
No. 10 TCU
If I had a nickel for every time in the last two years when a women’s basketball player transferred from a school that used to have Brian Kelly as their football coach to TCU and immediately became a standout, I would have two nickels, which isn’t a lot, but, weirdly, it’s happened twice. After the departure of star LSU transfer Hailey Van Lith, there was a level of nervousness about who could fill that lead role for the Horned Frogs, for approximately 30 seconds. Guard miss game-day-goggles, Olivia Miles came in from Notre Dame and immediately solidified herself as a huge threat and game commander. Third in the league in points and assists, she’s a beast, but it’s not just her. Forward arta Suárez has been a bucket from deep, shooting 48% from the field and sitting in the top five in threes per game. TCU deserves the top spot.
No. 15 West Virginia
Despite being in the top 15 of the AP poll, West Virginia just does not seem to get the love it deserves. It is in very solid contention to get a protected seed in the national tournament, and yet it does not get the exposure it seems to deserve. While TCU wins well, West Virginia is out here beating fantastic ball squads like they out the Mountaineers money. Recently, they beat Cincinnati 118-60, a top-four-seeded Oklahoma State team 72-40, and UCF 106-56. Sydney Shaw sits as one of the most lethal deep threats in the country at 41.7% from deep, nearly 7% higher than Mya Perry, the next woman in the Big 12. The only thing holding them back is 33% of their losses came against TCU, but do not be surprised if we see round three in this trilogy.
The Dark Horses
Oklahoma State
Cowgirls and horses go hand in hand, and Oklahoma State is hoping to ride that dark horse all the way to the title game. It came into the season ranked No. 22 with high hopes for the year. At 23-8, it earned a four seed in the Big 12 and has been flirting with the top 25 all season long. Jacie Hoyt has solidified herself as one of the best young coaches in not just college basketball but all of college sports. At less than 40 years old, she has finished with at least 20 wins in three of her four seasons with the Cowgirls. The biggest problem for the Cowgirls and the reason their name sits without a coveted number by it is punching above their weight. At a lackluster 8-7 against Quads 1 and 2, the question is, can they really go the distance in a tournament setting?
Arizona State
Under first-year head coach Molly Miller, the Sundevils are one of the most interesting cases in basketball. On one side of things, they sit at 22-9, their best record in a decade, the fifth-best overall record in the Big 12 and a massive improvement from the 21 combined wins they had the last two years. However, as impressive as that is, that path was not difficult. They only played one power opponent in non-conference play, a Penn State team that sits at an abysmal 11-18. Additionally, a .500 record in conference play earns them a 10 seed. They also still do not have a quad one win, and are 22-4 against the rest of the field. A fantastic record, but an easy path. This team absolutely could cause chaos as they have all year, with two overtime victories and a buzzer-beater from Marley Washenitz against UNLV that went viral. The question remains, can they finally punch about their weight?
The Cinderellas
Utah
The Utes feel like the opposite side of the coin to Arizona State; they sit at 19-11 with a lot of bad losses at a flooring 5-9 against Quads 2 and 3. However, the thing that propels them to an eight seed and a single bye is how much they’ve been able to punch above their weight. They are 2-2 against quad one teams, the third best in the league. Their biggest moment is when they absolutely walked down a then-unbeaten TCU squad and won by 10. To put it in perspective, TCU lost its other three games by a combined five points. The problem is, some bad teams can run with them. Losses to Washington, a pair of Ls from BYU, and a loss to a struggling Iowa State team at home tank their record. The question is which version of the Utes will take the court?
Cincinnati
I have one line of logic for why I am putting Cincinnati here: because it would be super cool. At 13th place in the conference, it does have a couple shining moments; namely beating then No. 11 Iowa State to send its season into a tailspin, as well as Arizona State. The other big thing is how close it has been to some more major upsets. A four-point loss to mid-major juggernaut Miami OH and a six-point loss to top 15 Baylor highlight it. Mya Perry has also solidified herself as one of the most elite scorers in the league with 530 points on the year and well over 1000 minutes. At 11-19, will the Bearcats win the league? Probably not. Will they cause some problems, though? Absolutely.
Game picks
Cincinnati versus Kansas State
We cannot let our Goats fall this quickly. Cincy takes care of business in the a.m. and moves on easily to round two.
Houston versus BYU
Houston is arguably the worst team in the power five, sitting around 180 in the net rankings. BYU, on the other hand, is looking to solidify its tournament resume, and while a win would not help much, a loss could seriously tank its chances. BYU cruises to a victory here.
Arizona versus Arizona
A rivalry game to get things going is always a ton of fun. These two have faced off twice this season, with the Sun Devils squeaking out single-digit wins both times. I believe it will happen a third time. The gap between these two has only grown as the season has progressed, and Arizona State is right on the bubble; it needs to lock in and does so here.
UCF versus Kansas
While UCF’s tourney hopes are completely dead at 11-18 unless it wins the whole thing, Kansas is on the outside looking in. This team has consistently been on the bubble the last few years and needs to make a push, and does just that in the first round.
Cincinnati versus Texas Tech
In a stunning upset, Cincinnati takes down Texas Tech. The Red Raiders’ easy schedule catches up to them, and the Bearcats catch the hot hand and advance to the quarters.
BYU versus Utah
Another mountainous rivalry game that should prove to be a ton of fun. The two teams have seemed dead even all year, but BYU is 2-0 against the Utes. However, I believe in a low-scoring affair with a day of rest, the Utes will learn from their mistakes and take round three.
Arizona State versus Iowa State
Despite the 22-9 record, Arizona State is 52nd in the net and is still looking for a signature win to push it to the right side of the bubble. Iowa State has fallen off a cliff after starting 14-0; it is since 8-8. Arizona State gets a solid win and pushes to the right side of the bubble.
Kansas versus Colorado
Colorado has been one of the most sneaky good teams in the country. Nothing insane, but it quietly stacked 20 wins and finished above previous juggernauts Iowa Staten and Utah in conference play. I believe the Buffs make a bit more noise and handle Kansas with ease.
Cincinnati versus Oklahoma State
Sadly for our wonderful Cinderellas, I believe the luck runs out here. Hoyt has built too good a ball squad, and with two extra days of rest, I think the Cowgirls handle business quite easily.
TCU versus Utah
As stated before, the Horned Frogs lost to Utah by double digits early in the year, and if you don’t think they’re going to spend all of their rest time stewing on that, you have another thing coming. Frankly, I think this game is going to be much worse than expected, and I think that TCU absolutely nukes the Utes.
Arizona State versus West Virginia
I am going to say this from the jump: if we end up getting this game, this will be the best game of the tournament. Period. You have one ball squad trying to prove it is a national contender and another trying to prove it even belongs in the dance. I think this game will be completely antithetical to the 53-43 Mountaineer victory that happened before and become an absolute track meet and maybe even go into overtime, but I think the extra two days’ rest and quad one win experience proves too much, and West Virginia moves on to the semi-finals.
Colorado versus Baylor
Baylor really just feels like Colorado+. Two non-flashy teams quietly stacking wins and making their way to the big dance, but everything Colorado does, Baylor does better. Give me the bears.
Oklahoma State versus TCU
While I do believe that the Cowgirls are underrated, TCU is an absolute wagon. The one-two punch of Suárez and Miles cannot be beat, and the Horned Frogs make their way to the title game.
West Virginia versus Baylor
After a close game versus ASU, I think that there will be blood in the water for the Mountaineers. I believe it just starts raining threes, and as good as Baylor is, I think this game will be over by halftime. West Virginia. By a lot.
Title Game: TCU versus West Virginia
All comes down to this. No.1 versus No.2 for all the marbles. The Mountaineers have heart and something to prove, but TCU only has one place to go, and that’s through everyone else. TCU plays one of its best games of the year and makes it to the big dance in hopes of finishing what last year’s squad couldn’t.