When the clock hit zero in Sioux Falls last year, St. Thomas freshman guard Nolan Minessale skulked to an inconsolable Tommies bench as they watched the Omaha Mavericks celebrate their first ever NCAA tournament bid. It was a tough game, as St. Thomas came achingly close to a 15-point comeback in the final minutes.
The caveat? Had the Tommies won, it would have been Omaha making the trip to the first round anyway. St. Thomas was in their fourth season of Division I basketball, meaning they were still ineligible for postseason play according to frankly questionable NCAA rules. In 2021 they became the first ever program to jump directly from Division III to Division I.
This year however, the Tommies have passed the NCAA trial period and are eligible for postseason play. It’s a good thing too as Summit League preseason POTY Minnesale has led the Tommies to a strong second-place finish in the league. Standing in front of their tournament hopes? A minefield of Jackrabbits, Hawks and Bison, oh my!
The Frontrunners
Despite some well-deserved hype around the Tommies, the betting favorite in this bracket is North Dakota State. After two road losses against Oregon State and UC Davis to begin the year, the Bison rattled off 10 wins in their next 11 games, including impressive road wins over Jacksonville State, Montana and Drake. They lost their front man Jacari White to Virginia this year and there were questions about who would step up to fill the void. Answer? Everyone. You might double take at that, but the Bison’s success can run through any one of seven guys on any given night.
Trevian Carson, a junior JUCO transfer and first-team conference selection, leads the team in rebounds and steals as a 6 foot, 3 inch guard. Junior guard Damari Wheeler-Thomas leads the team in scoring with 14.1 points per game and sophomore Andy Stefonowicz adds 9.4 points and a team-leading 4.8 assists per game. Slashing 6 foot, 6 inch Western Michigan transfer Markhi Strickland contributes 12.3 points per game and lengthy forwards Treyson Anderson and Noah Feddersen add ability on the boards and in the scoring column.
Overall, this is a well-balanced squad. They spread out their scoring, they defend well, they rebound well, and they have an experienced coach who won Summit COTY this season in David Richman that has led them to the tournament before. It is pretty hard to pick against the Bison.
But a good many are doing just that thanks to the Tommies of St. Thomas (creative, I know). These purple-clad bucket-getters strike fear into the hearts of nylon everywhere. They boast the fourth best effective field goal percentage in the country, and the third best overall field goal percentage at 51.3%. If that weren’t enough, the Tommies rank tenth nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio, whipping the ball around a free-flowing, almost positionless offense. Nolan Minessale and Freshman of the Year Nick Janowski were both first-team selections at guard and forwards Cooper Bjerke and Ben Oosterbaan work effectively inside and out. Another interesting tidbit about this team; Austin Herro, the little brother of Kentucky and Miami Heat star Tyler, plays an important three-and-D role off the bench for the Tommies. Runs in the family.
The one Achilles’ heel for these purple people eaters is rebounding. They’re decent at getting defensive boards, but the Tommies sit in last on the offensive glass. This hasn’t been a huge issue as they don’t miss a lot of shots, but if they go cold there could be some problems. They are young, but they haven’t let that stifle their success. In their first year of postseason eligibility, the Tommies look like real contenders for the Summit’s throne.
The Joker
Separating the upper echelon of the league from the bottom is the North Dakota Fighting Hawks. They are wildly inconsistent, but they managed a 10-6 conference record despite doubtful rebounding and shooting metrics. When they heat up they can beat good teams, as they dealt St. Thomas an 81-80 loss back in January. But at their worst, they lost to a 5-26 Western Illinois team at home. They rely heavily on generating turnovers defensively and avoiding them on the other end (top 40 nationally in both turnovers allowed and turnovers forced per game). Senior DPOY Eli King and freshman Greyson Uelmen are the one-two punch in the backcourt, and frontcourt minutes are split between a host of seven players, including identical twins Micah and Marley Curtis. Sports announcers’ worst nightmare.
The Middle Pack
The South Dakota Coyotes (pronounced ky-YOHTS, fun fact) were dealt a stroke of bad luck when they lost leading scorer Isaac Bruns for the season to a foot injury at the end of January. They gnashed their teeth down the stretch and scraped out a 4-4 record to finish the season. For the ‘Yotes, the name of the game is speed. They run the 46th fastest offense in the country, and often produce a high volume of possessions offensively. This hasn’t translated on the other end of the court, where they allow the best opponent field goal percentage in the league. 7-foot first-team selection Cameron Fens has been forced to step up, and he has, averaging nearly a double-double since Bruns’ departure. They’re tough, but we’ll see if it translates to March.
Speaking of, defending champs Omaha have been underwhelming this year. It’s been a hard year for the Mavericks, with the tragic drowning of forward Deng Mayar putting a damper on things a few months before the season. Frenchman Miami transfer Paul Djobet has been the bright spot, leading the team in scoring and rebounding since becoming academically eligible in December. It’s a guard-heavy roster, and the Mavs have shifted their offensive focus to the perimeter following the transfer departure of star Marquel Sutton to LSU last spring. They don’t do anything particularly well but they can heat up from range and run away with games. Expect a shootout when they match up with the Coyotes Friday.
Denver is an anomaly in this field. They played through a tough non-conference schedule and picked up big road wins over Colorado State and Northern Colorado, but stumbled their way to an 8-8 conference record. Denver is also the only team in the league to beat both St. Thomas and North Dakota State, raising eyebrows as we enter upset season. Statistically, they have the best offense in the league, and one of the worst defenses. Everyone shoots well from three, and things run very smoothly through conference POTY Carson Johnson. They’ll match up with North Dakota in the first round. If they want a shot at a very possible Cinderella run it will take some strong defensive performances and effective ball control.
South Dakota State is not used to being in this position, having picked up a winning conference record every year since 2009. Metrics suggest they’ve been unlucky with most placing them as the third-best team in the conference. This isn’t a team that will shoot the lights out or run you off the court, but they defend and rebound very well. All things considered, this isn’t your average seven seed. Sophomore guard Joe Saylor and sophomore center Damon Wilkinson control the offense, but the Jackrabbits will need strong performances from wing players Jaden Jackson and Kalen Garry to make a run. With a strong crowd expected in Sioux Falls and a history of success, the Jackrabbits are not a team to rule out.
The Bottom
Oral Roberts and Kansas City meet up in the 8 vs. 9 game today and if you need a timeframe to do household chores, it’s here. ORU is far removed from their days of NCAA tournament glory, but Ty Harper is a ridiculously talented scorer, dropping 47 in an upset win over Denver last week. The Roos are 4-26. Need I say more?
My picks
This bracket is not an easy one to predict, with a lot of inconsistencies across the board. I’ve got North Dakota State handling ORU in their first round matchup, South Dakota knocking off Omaha, Denver pulling the upset over North Dakota, and St. Thomas eking out a win against a feisty South Dakota State team. In the semis, I think the Bison handle business against South Dakota, and once again, I think St. Thomas gets taken down to the wire against a capable Denver roster. The final matchup is interesting, but my instincts push me towards the Tommies. Their four conference losses were by a combined 10 points, and they handed the Bison a 22-point defeat just last week. They shoot too well, and who doesn’t love a first time dancer? It’s anyone’s bracket, but I’ve got St. Thomas.