Evansville, Indiana, will once again welcome the top eight teams from the Ohio Valley Conference for its postseason tournament, where the winner will likely receive a 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Last year, history was made as SIUE took home the crown for the first time in school history behind senior guard Ray’Sean Taylor’s heroics, and now, some of the top schools are looking to create some magic for themselves.
This has already been a year of upheaval for the league – Not one of the teams picked in the preseason to finish in the top-3 nabbed a coveted double-bye. There’s been a lot of parity and a lot of fun basketball, which could lead to fireworks in the tournament.
The Favorites
No. 1 Tennessee State (15-5)
For the first time in 31 years, Tennessee State finds itself with a share of the OVC regular-season conference crown.
The Tigers are riding a four-game win streak into the tournament, winning each by eight points or more. Senior forward and OVC Player of the Year Aaron Nkrumah does a bit of everything, scoring 18 points per game along with 5.5 boards and a few assists. He leads the best offense in the conference that scores over 80 points a night, and is backed up by senior guard Travis Harper, who averages 17. Both guys are in the top three in the conference in scoring, providing a prolific bucket-getting duo.
Their defense, on the other hand, is where they are vulnerable. Tennessee State gives up the fifth-most points per game in the conference, and allows opponents to shoot almost 44% from the field. Of course, when you shoot almost 46%, as the Tigers do, there’s a little more wiggle room.
The Tigers are on the larger side for the OVC, with three starters standing at least 6’6”, helping them outrebound their opponents by almost four boards per game. That’s where first-year coach and OVC Co-Coach of the Year Nolan Smith’s squad really shines. Tennessee State crashes the glass relentlessly, and must continue to do so if it wants to go back to the Big Dance for the first time since 1994.
No. 2 Morehead State (15-5)
The OVC regular season co-champions enter March on a blistering seven-game win streak, including victories over Tennessee State and UT Martin.
Second-year coach Jonathan Mattox’s squad was picked to finish fifth in the preseason OVC poll, but outperformed expectations. Mattox was the other half of the Co-Coach of the Year duo as he turned around the Eagles after a subpar 2025 campaign. Morehead State, unlike a lot of the rest of these schools, has some NCAA Tournament experience, most recently in 2024 when they bowed out in the first round to Illinois.
This year, the Eagles are a picture of balance. No scorer puts up more than 14 points per game, but the team still shoots the ball at almost 47%, the conference’s highest clip. Like Tennessee State, the Eagles struggle on the defensive end but have fared better in conference play.
Senior guard George Marshall leads the team in scoring and was named an OVC First Team All-Conference member. Seven guys, though, score over seven points a night, so you never really know which guy is going to go off here. The Eagles and the Tigers split their two matchups in the regular season, so a rematch for a trip to March Madness could be cinematic.
The Chase Card
No. 3 Southeast Missouri (14-6)
On Jan. 17, SEMO had just dropped its second straight OVC game to SIUE to bring its conference record to 4-4. Since that point, it has reeled off 10 wins in 12 tries to grab a bye in the tournament. Over that stretch, its only losses have been to SIUE again and Tennessee State, and it has beaten Morehead State and UT Martin.
SEMO’s biggest detriment is how hard it tries to shoot the 3-ball when it sucks at doing so. Only UT-Martin shoots it at a lower clip than the Redhawks’ 31%, and yet SEMO is sixth in the conference in makes. That means more inefficient shots when they could be better served going into the paint.
The Redhawks play pace-and-space ball around 6’7 senior forward Brendan Terry, who scores about 11 points per game and pulls in five and a half boards per night. They play above average defense, but are small and get beaten on the glass too often to compete with Tennessee State.
In order to make it back-to-back trips to the NCAA Tournament, their 3-point shooting must surge for a few games.
No. 4 UT Martin
The Skyhawks come into the postseason with a defined identity: Take your soul off the glass. UT Martin outpaces every other OVC school in rebounding margin by far at seven per game. That’s almost double Tennessee State’s 3.8 per game.
Their size is palpable, as four starters tower at 6’7 or taller, each averaging at least four rebounds per game. Serbian junior forward Andrija Bukumirović scores 14 points per game and grabs eight boards as well.
The good news for UT Martin is that rebounding and defense travel. The Skyhawks give up the fewest points in the league per game at 63, and that’s part of the reason the team has gone 6-4 on the road in conference play. I believe this to be one of the sneaky teams to look out for in the tournament.
The Rest of the Pack
SIUE, Lindenwood, Little Rock and Eastern Illinois are all fighting out of an incredibly disadvantaged position. Only once since 2016 has a team without a bye won the OVC tournament, that team being SEMO in 2023 when it was a five-seed. Winning four games in four days is incredibly draining, so these guys have their work cut out for them.
Out of this group, Lindenwood scores the second-most points in the league but gives up a ton of points. SIUE plays great defense, but is middle of the pack in most offensive metrics. Eastern Illinois isn’t great at anything, and Little Rock sits middle of the pack as well, except for 3-point shooting, where it ranks second.
This group has two prolific scorers to watch: Lindenwood’s Anias Futrell scores the most points per game in conference play, and Little Rock’s Johnathan Lawsom averages 16 and four assists. SIUE’sJack Campion dishes it out with the best of them, leading the conference with over five assists a night.
Prediction: Morehead State over UT Martin
This would be a brutal result for Tennessee State and Aaron Nkrumah, but I truly believe UT Martin’s size is going to make it difficult in a neutral-site game. Now, the Tigers did beat the Skyhawks by over 25 in their last meeting, but this is March. That sets up Morehead State to go dancing yet again for the second time in three years, cementing Jonathan Mattox’s turnaround.