The American Conference regular season played out like no one thought it would. There’s stark contrast between most preseason projections and how the conference actually finished, which is more rare than you might think. Memphis has consistently been the gold standard in the conference, and with an excellent transfer class, most expected them to take the regular season title. In surprising fashion, it finished in the bottom half of the league, and left a wide open field in its wake. With the action from Birmingham kicking off tomorrow, who will punch their ticket to the tournament from the American Conference?
The Favorite
This year’s favorite: South Florida. It received two first-place votes in preseason rankings, and came through with a 15-3 conference record. It boasts the best offense in the league, and it’s a real Running of the Bulls, with the 14th ranked adjusted tempo in the nation. USF is top-10 nationally in scoring, with a surprisingly low offensive efficiency.
The reason for this anomaly has been rebounding, where the Bulls have led the league statistically, and sit third nationally in total rebounds per game and fifth in offensive rebounds per game. They also get to the line incredibly well, leading the nation in free throw attempts per game.
Leading this charge is American player and defensive player of the year Iziyah Nelson, a 6-foot-10 Arkansas State transfer who can run the floor with anyone. He averages a league-leading 9.8 rebounds per game, cleaning the glass on box outs and in transition offense. Former D-II all-American guard Wes Enis leads the scoring department with 16.5 per game, earning him a first-team all-conference selection.
Ultimately, the beautiful thing about this team is that the effort is spread out. Outside of Nelson and Enis, guards Joseph Pinion, Josh Omojafo and CJ Brown all average 11 or more points per game and contribute on the glass. Expect to see lots of five-out sets and quick transition buckets. It’s a volume-centric offense, and it’s been incredibly effective.
Schedule-wise, the Bulls’ three conference losses were by a combined five points, and the team put up valiant non-conference efforts on the road against Alabama and Oklahoma State. USF is the favorite for a reason, and if you mess with the bull, well, you know the rest.
Contenders
My second-favorite contender in this field is actually the third-seeded Tulsa Golden Hurricane. They have the best overall record in the conference at 25-6, and rank 57th in the KenPom rankings (compared to 52nd for USF). They enter tournament season with the fourth-best three point field goal percentage in the country, and some of the most effective overall shooting.
Typically operating out of four-out, one-in sets, Tulsa emphasizes the high pick and roll to create space for shooters. Senior forward David Green, a first-team all-conference selection, is typically the man in the middle, pacing the team in scoring and rebounding. The rest of the work is spread out between guards Miles Barnstable, Tylen Riley and Ade Popoola.
Everyone on the floor can knock down the three-ball, and they do so seemingly at will. They are barely above average defensively, emphasizing perimeter play but often struggling inside. Tulsa’s only non-conference loss was a heartbreaking 84-83 shortfall against Kansas State, showing that the Golden Hurricane can stay with anyone.
If anyone can match the rebounding intensity of USF, it is Wichita State. The Shockers ranked third nationally in offensive boards per game, and sixth in total rebounding. WSU is top-ten nationally in extra scoring chances per-game, making up for pedestrian shooting numbers.
Despite a transfer-heavy roster and little returning production, the season played out to the tune of a 21-10 record and a second place conference finish for the Shocks. The team operates with multiple ball-handlers and UNC Greensboro transfer Kenyon Giles, a top-50 scorer in the country, is the best.
Typically head coach Paul Mills likes to get Giles open off of screens, but Giles is especially adept at creating space from the triple-threat and off the dribble. Two unsung heroes from this impressive season are American sixth-man of the year Will Berg (Purdue), a 7-foot-2 center from Sweden, and 6-foot-10 senior forward Emmanuel Okorafor (Seton Hall). They’ve both been incredibly efficient inside, and provide huge minutes for the rebounding column along with starting forward Karon Boyd (ETSU).
Outside of Memphis, Wichita State has some of the most storied tournament history in the conference and they get a bye to the semifinals. Shock ‘Em.
UAB will have a home court advantage at Legion Arena in Birmingham. The Blazers rely on decent defense and solid rebounding to back a fairly conservative offense. UAB is very well-disciplined, allowing the fewest free throws in the conference.
The team is excellent at holding on to the ball, averaging only nine turnovers per game- 10th nationally. Quick inside attacking defines the offense, which is led by slashing point guard Chance Westry, a second-team all-conference selection. The frontcourt trio of KyeRon Lindsay-Martin, Daniel Rivera and Evan Chatman is solid inside, frequently providing 10-and-10 performances on any given night.
The Blazers offense depends on the inside game, with some of the worst three-point numbers nationally. With the fans on their side and a few good offensive performances to boost their strong defense, the stars could potentially align for UAB.
Dark Horses
My favorite dark horse pick in this tournament is North Texas. They’ll enter as the No. 6 seed, having finished with the same 9-9 conference record as Florida Atlantic and Charlotte. The Mean Green rank top-50 nationally in defensive efficiency, playing a slow, drawn out style. They deny the three-ball and force the 11th most steals per game nationally, coming together for the best defensive stats in the league.
On the other hand, the offense has been horrendous; there’s little outside threat, and besides second-team guard Je’Shawn Stevenson, pure scoring is limited. The Mean Green lost one of their main options early in the season when guard Will McClendon went down for the year with a knee injury. It’ll take a lot, but defense certainly wins championships and that is one thing North Texas has plenty of.
Charlotte has been pretty much average across the board. Guards Ben Bradford and Dezayne Mingo front a decent offense that spreads out scoring between a host of players. Vanuatu native Anton Bonke is a mountain of a man, standing at 7-foot-2, 270 pounds. Yes, Vanuatu is a real place, and yes, Anton Bonke is an awesome name. The center hauls in rebounds like few others in the conference, and will almost certainly play a key role in any run the 49ers could make.
Despite Bonke’s looming figure inside and one of the slowest tempos in the country, Charlotte is not good defensively, and they’ve been gashed by many teams with good outside scoring. I’m not expecting much from Charlotte, but you never know.
Florida Atlantic is three years removed from their shocking Final Four run under Dusty May. Since he left for Michigan, the Owls have not been nearly as successful. Heading into the tournament, FAU is an underrated team. They are top 150 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and have the fourth-best KenPom ranking in the conference. They match up with Temple in round one, and will have plenty of obstacles in front of any March Madness dreams.
Sophomore guard Devin Vanterpool leads the way in points, rebounds and steals, though he is currently questionable for Wednesday, having missed the last five games of the season with an ankle injury. Indiana transfer Kanaan Carlyle is a solid second option offensively, but if Vanterpool doesn’t play, the Owls are in trouble.
Long Shots
Memphis came into the season with immense hype, taking in a haul from the transfer portal. It didn’t mesh well, and the Tigers stumbled their way to a 13-18 record, losing seven of their last eight games heading into the tournament. Dug McDaniel and Sincere Parker are both talented in their own rite, feeding into former 5-star center Aaron Bradshaw. They’ve been bad this year, but Memphis is still Memphis, and the Tigers are always capable of a run.
Tulane centers the team around preseason player of the year Rowan Brumbaugh. He plays well in all phases of the game, but the team hasn’t followed suit. They have good talent on the roster, with three former-top 100 high school recruits, but it hasn’t equated to success on the court. The Green Wave is below average in most every department, and I wouldn’t expect that to change much going forward.
Temple has an average offense, and a highly mediocre defense. Guard Derrian Ford is talented, and guards Aiden Tobiason and Jordan Mason are solid options offensively. The team doesn’t do well on the glass or defending, but they did pick up a high quality win against USF in January. They struggled immensely in February, playing poor basketball down the stretch after a decent start to the year. However, for the bottom seed in the tournament, the Owls are still a decent team.
My picks
It’s a very open field this year, and a tough bracket to pick. In the first matchup, No. 9 Tulane versus No. 8 Memphis, I have the Tigers. I think it’ll be very close, much like their two regular season matchups, but Memphis has the roster talent and a pedigree of success in March. In the battle of the Owls, No. 7 FAU vs. No. 10 Temple, I have FAU winning. FAU beat the other Owls without Devin Vanterpool just a few weeks ago, and if he plays, I think FAU should take care of business.
In the second round, give me Memphis to take down No. 5 Charlotte. The 49ers just don’t do enough at a high level, and the Tigers have them outmatched all over the court. Bonke versus Bradshaw could be a fun matchup to watch, but I like the Tigers here. For the other second round matchup, I like FAU to down No. 6 North Texas. UNT will try to slow the game down, but FAU has a much better offense than the Mean Green, and I think FAU’s defense matches up well with a lacking UNT offense.
In the quarterfinals, Memphis vs. No. 4 UAB is a real toss-up. They split the season series, and have intriguing matchups across the court. I think the home-court advantage and discipline of the Blazers will push them over the edge here, so I have UAB toppling a panicked Memphis squad. In the other quarterfinal, I think FAU will surprise No.3 Tulsa.
Metrically, almost everything points to Tulsa winning. However, they’ll have gone almost a week without playing, and for a team reliant on three-point shooting, that can be a problem. The Owls have a balanced squad, playing solidly on both sides of the ball. It’s gonna be a hard fought game, one that could really go either way, but I have FAU moving on to the semifinals.
In the semis, USF downs the Blazers in another close matchup. They split the season series, but I think the consistency, speed and versatility of this Bulls’ team gets the job done. On the other side, Wichita State matches up with FAU. The Shockers dominated the Owls in their only matchup this year, and having played three games in three days, I have the Shockers blowing past a fatigued FAU squad.
For the championship, USF squares off with Wichita State. I think the difference is experience. Wichita State built most of their roster on transfers. As much as my nostalgic brain would love to see another Shockers March Madness run, I don’t see it happening. They’ll play the Bulls tough, but USF will outrun and out-defend WSU. I think the Shockers will likely get down early, and with their slower pace and average shooting numbers, it’ll be hard for them to work back. USF wins it 84-71.