Welcome all ye scallywags and swash bucklers to the Atlantic coast! Fortune indeed favors the bold, and ten of the bravest basketball crews have finally made landfall, aiming to find the treasure at the end of a long journey at sea. That treasure you ask? A bid to March Madness, awarded to the winner of the Atlantic-10 conference tournament set to take place from March 11-15 in Pittsburgh.
Let’s take a look at the teams that will be in the running to fight for Captain Kidd’s treasure, as well as the teams that could quickly end up in Davey Jones’s Locker.
The Captains – (Favorite)
Historically speaking, the A-10 has never been under a greater spotlight than it has had from the start of the 2025-26 season, thanks in large part to the efforts of St. Louis (27-4). Led by senior center Robbie Avila and head coach Josh Schertz, the Billikens gained nationwide attention when they cast off in non-conference play, racking up impressive double-digit wins en route to a 12-1 start.
Many asked if the stellar performances would continue once A-10 conference play began, as the Billikens faced consistency issues during their conference schedule last season.
Any doubts were quickly put to bed, as St. Louis proceeded to go on a 12-game winning streak from late-December to mid-February. Highlighted by four players averaging 10-plus points-per-game and a strong nine-man rotation, the Billikens seemed all but ready to become the kings of the Atlantic, indicated by its spot in the AP poll.
However, now St. Louis’ winds have seemed to wane from its sails. Going 3-3 in its last six games, the Billikens appear to be struggling with getting off the start line, getting into deep deficits in their first halves against Rhode Island, Dayton and George Mason, and ultimately failing to come back.
With St. Louis’ latest struggles, the treasure chest now appears to open, and some teams are clearly lying in wait.
First Mates – (Contenders)
Tied for first place with the Billikens in the regular season was VCU (24-7), but its path to the second seed in the conference tournament was a little different compared to St. Louis.
Last season’s conference tournament victors took a little longer to find its team identity, struggling through its non-conference play, albeit against much tougher opposition. Once it hit its conference schedule, VCU never looked back.
With sophomore guard Terrence Hill Jr. and junior forward Lazar Djokovic at the helm, the Rams dominated its opponents for much of the season, averaging 82.4 points-per-game as a squad. Even despite its losses, twice against the Billikens and once against George Mason, VCU was in it to win it.
The Rams have much of its same conference championship-winning roster from last season, and first-year head coach Phil Martelli Jr. has shown that he can take a mid-major to the promised land, so expect VCU to come out cannons firing the second it hits the court.
No team is set to enter the conference tournament with more momentum than Saint Joseph, after ending the regular season on a six-game win streak. The Hawks have found their footing following early and mid-season struggles, and are anchored by sophomore guard Jaiden Glover-Toscano, who has ten, 20-plus PPG performances under his belt thus far in the season.
However, Saint Joseph is at its best when its starting rotation can all contribute, and while late season success has proven that they can, the Hawks will have to overcome the quick turnaround they’ll be under once they begin play on March 13.
Scallywags – (Dark Horses)
Sometimes a pirate crew can be good for something, while other times it can be good for nothing. No other team sums that up more than Dayton.
It seemed like the Flyers were enjoying its start conference play, starting out 4-0, and then a string of defeats to La Salle, Saint Joseph, Rhode Island and Saint Louis brought them back down to earth. Dayton proceeded to rebound with another six-game winning streak, but two confusing losses to VCU seemed to reveal its ceiling.
Dayton seems to have the pieces to succeed, with a healthy balance of youth and experience, and a capable leader in senior guard Javon Bennett. However, the Flyers can also lack the energy to fight when they’re in deep waters, so any bettor looking to gamble some doubloons should exercise caution.
George Mason entered conference play flying under the radar compared to teams like Saint Louis, but the Patriots appeared to be just as capable, entering into mid-January with an 18-1 record. A bad storm can crack even the toughest of nuts on a crew, and George Mason followed a similar fate.
Going 2-5 in its last 7 games, George Mason’s potency on offense seemed to vanish as double-digit losses began to compile against sub-par teams like Richmond and George Washington. The Patriots did manage to right itself in the end, handing Saint Louis its biggest loss, and winning at home 86-57. Even still the damage was done, and now George Mason will have to start a day earlier in the conference tournament as the fifth seed that will take on the winner of La Salle and St. Bonaventure.
Final Pick: VCU
It’s hard to pick against the team who historically has won the most as of late in the A-10 conference tournament. In the last three seasons, the Rams have made it to the conference championship game all three times, earning a bid to March Madness twice across that span.
VCU may have lost twice to the Billikens, both at home and on the road, but neutral sites are anyone’s game, and where the Rams have found their identity as of late, Saint Louis now seems to be in a rediscovery period after its poor finish to the regular season.
What has yet to be discussed is the possibility of two bids to March Madness from the A-10. Saint Louis’ domination early and midway through the season appears to have been enough for the tournament selection committee, but if it loses in the tournament, will that still be the case? Could Saint Louis lose to VCU in the conference championship game, and yet will both still have a trip to the Round of 64 in their future?
Regardless of the answer, tune in to the A-10 tournament, set to take place from March 11-15!