The 2026 World Baseball Classic has completed its Pool Stage, and now moves on to the single-elimination Knockout Stage with eight remaining teams.
This year’s edition of the Classic has been a captivating, electric experience and the tournament’s motto, ‘Expect Everything,’ has proven far more prescient than most of us anticipated. For some countries, the Classic solidified itself as Baseball’s World Cup – a true international tournament on the scale of FIFA’s juggernaut competition, with the passion, atmosphere and stadium celebrations equalling those of the most die-hard English footy fans. For others, it was a showcase of steady progress in the international baseball community, or for a few, a success even beyond expectations. And for others still, the opening round of the tournament was a decidedly mixed affair, with embarrassing moments that will likely haunt their nations’ respective baseball teams for years to come. In that latter category is the United States, who will face Canada in the first round of the knockouts.
United States v. Canada | Friday, 7:00 PM Central Time
In my preview article for Team USA, I talked about “the demon haunting every American team in the WBC…the idea that this is a flashier spring training exhibition.” Mark DeRosa and the American squad did little to exorcise that demon in Houston; Trailing Great Britain until the fifth inning, Tarik Skubal flip-flopping on a potential return to the team, Cal Raleigh creating an unnecessary incident with Randy Arozarena at home plate and of course, a devastating loss to Team Italy which nearly ended the U.S. run before the knockouts even began. The ‘Dream Team’ was forced to watch Italy play Mexico from their hotel, their fate resting in the hands of the Azzurri. Mark DeRosa clearly misunderstood the tiebreaker situation his team was in the midst of, and failed to manage a potential advancement-clinching game to the gravity it deserved.
That isn’t to say that Team USA didn’t have highlights in the Pool Stage – it had many. Bobby Witt Jr. showed off his magnificent defensive prowess on the infield, Aaron Judge homered in his first at-bat and had a beautiful outfield assist, Paul Skenes dominated a potent Team Mexico lineup and Team USA led the Pool in runs scored, strikeouts by the pitching staff, walks, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, among others. This is still a very dangerous team, and they’ve been punched in the proverbial jaw now – maybe that helps to wake them up before their matchup against Canada.
For the first time ever, the Canadians advanced from pool play in the WBC, and took home the Pool A title in San Juan. The pitching staff threw to a 1.50 ERA, the second-best in the pool, and the offense clicked well enough in the pitcher-friendly Hiram Bithorn Stadium to lift the squad to victories over Colombia, Puerto Rico and Cuba. Owen Cassie batted .500 across fourteen at-bats with a home run and four RBI, while Abraham Toro followed with a .467 average, a homer of his own and five RBI. Both players also hit three doubles. Cal Quantrill and James Paxton are yet to give up an earned run, but three unearned runs did score on the latter’s watch. Overall, Team Canada’s most impressive victory was a dominant 7-2 quarterfinal-clincher against Cuba, the final game in San Juan, which felt from the beginning like the Canadians were in control.
Against the United States, I think the Canadians will struggle. Not only is this a rivalry game – with the added boost of the recent Olympic Hockey matchup in the heads of both teams – but it is a crucial shot at redemption for the United States. The American lineup is pound-for-pound, player-for-player superior to the Canadians’ and I doubt that Michael Soroka, not confirmed, but likely to start against the States, will outduel Logan Webb. My prediction is a dominant United States victory, sending them to the semifinals.
Korea v. Dominican Republic
South Korea was lucky to advance from Pool C in Tokyo, perhaps the most difficult of all the five-team pools in the WBC this year. However, that isn’t to say they didn’t earn it. After a dominant opener against Czechia, the Koreans suffered losses to both Japan and Taiwan. Against 2-1 Australia, the Koreans needed to win by five, and allow fewer than three runs. They won, 7-2. It was a brilliantly executed victory, getting the squad into the next round of the WBC for the first time since 2009. Unfortunately, they drew possibly the toughest opponent imaginable – the Dominican Republic.
The D.R. utterly dominated its four opponents in the Pool Stage. The juggernaut team has batted .313, clubbed 13 home runs, logged 40 hits and scored 41 runs – all the top of the WBC team leaderboards. On the pitching side, Plátano Power has a combined 2.38 ERA (fourth-best), with 37 strikeouts (sixth) and a 1.03 WHIP (fourth). Albert Pujols’ team has also been electric since the beginning – unlike Korea, who at 2-2, has the worst record of any team in the Quarterfinals. The South Korean squad has a 4.50 cumulative ERA, 12th of 20 teams in the tournament and the worst by a substantial margin among teams in the Quarterfinals. Next-closest is the United States’ 3.50 clip, a full run better than South Korea. Worse, Korea’s pitching staff has given up nine home runs, tied for the most in the tournament, which bodes extremely poorly for a matchup against the most power-heavy lineup in the WBC.
The strategic differences between Korea and the Dominican Republic will be fascinating to watch, but ultimately I don’t think the former can A-B-C-Baseball their way into a victory over the latter. My prediction for this matchup is a Dominican Republic victory, but in a closer final score than some anticipate.
Puerto Rico v. Italy
A real ‘Thucydides Trap’ matchup in Houston, the established-but-weakened power of Puerto Rico will meet the espresso-fueled rising stars of Italy for what I anticipate will be a great matchup. Puerto Rico came within a run of winning the pool in San Juan, but lost their final game to Canada. That allowed the Canadians to tie them at 3-1 atop the standings after their victory over Cuba, giving Puerto Rico the runner-up slot. Even so, they were the first of the pair to clinch their spot in the next round thanks to multi-game heroics in front of a thunderous home crowd.
History will remember Darell Hernaiz’ walk-off home run against Panama, but we shouldn’t forget the other big contributions made for Team Rubio; Nolan Arenado’s exquisite, vintage defense across the four-game slate, his sacrifice fly to get Puerto Rico back on the board in the sixth inning against Panama, Martín Maldonado’s three-run double down the left field line to open the scoring against Cuba or Seth Lugo’s shutout victory on the bump against Colombia. Puerto Rico’s pitching staff in general has been tremendous, allowing just seven runs, of which five were earned – both the fewest among all teams in the Classic. The staff’s 40 total strikeouts and combined WHIP of 0.97 are also both within the top four of the teams in the tournament.
Perhaps thanks to the more difficult offensive environment at Hiram Bithorn Stadium or the losses of Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa and Javier Baez (and probably both), the Puerto Rican offense has not been nearly as strong. With only fifteen runs scored throughout the tournament, Puerto Rico is part of a three-way tie with Israel and Great Britain for 10th-most in the tournament. A .211 team batting average (11th) and .306 on-base percentage (13th) are further indications of a stagnant offense – one that has no choice but to kick into a higher gear against the power of the Italian lineup.
The Azzurri are as explosive as any team in the tournament, and seem to be hitting their best stride just before the elimination bracket begins. Team captain Vinnie Pasquantino, who had been hitless in the first three games of the tournament, exploded for a trio of home runs in their pool play finale against Mexico – the first three-homer game in WBC history. In total, the Italians have clubbed 12 home runs, just one behind the tournament-leading Dominican Republic. They’ve driven in 28 runs (fourth in the tournament), have a batting average of .294 (third), a .640 slugging percentage (second) and most notably, the only other 1.000+ OPS in the tournament outside of the Dominican Republic at 1.038.
While I love the Puerto Rican squad, and think they’ll give Italy a fight we won’t soon forget, I do anticipate a well-earned Italian victory. If so, the rising power will be ascendant in Texas, and it could very well signal a major shift in the international baseball landscape – especially as Puerto Rico’s core begins to age out of their prime before the next tournament.
Venezuela v. Japan
No doubt about it, this will be a heavyweight fight like few we’ve seen before. The Venezuelans come into this game having narrowly lost to the Dominican Republic in the finale of Pool D in Miami, finishing 3-1 overall with wins over Israel, Nicaragua and the Netherlands. Meanwhile, Japan utterly dominated the Tokyo pool, going 4-0 with their closest win being a 4-3 instant-classic against Australia. They mercy-ruled Chinese Taipei, beat Korea by a pair, and blanked Czechia 9-0 in the remainder of their schedule. Neither team lacks for power, contact, or pitching, and neither will be satisfied with an exit in the Quarterfinals.
Venezuela has been one of the better pitching staffs in the tournament, with a 2.75 ERA placing them in a tie with Italy for the fifth-best of the tournament. Unfortunately, Japan’s 2.12 posting narrowly beats them. Japan also shows a clear edge in power pitching, with 49 strikeouts thrown to 36 by Venezuela. Japan also comes out ahead in hitting, with a better average (.301 to .278), home runs (8 to 5) and runs (33 to 25). While part of this is down to the familiar dimensions at the Tokyo Dome and the comparatively lesser caliber of pitchers facing Japan, it shows a notable advantage for the Samurai.
Altogether, while this is an intensely close and star-studded matchup, I anticipate a Japanese victory in a thriller. The advantages are slight, but I think the Japanese prowess, discipline and team strategy will help to get them through into the semifinals.
Teams Advancing:
United States over Canada
Dominican Republic over South Korea
Italy over Puerto Rico
Japan over Venezuela