Conference champions have been settled for just under two weeks, and the college gymnastics world is now drawn to the regional bracket – a field of 36 that will be pared down to just eight national-qualifying teams come Sunday. Plenty of upsets (and misfires) took place at conference championships, as Clemson defeated Stanford for their first ACC crown, No. 1 overall Oklahoma surrendered the SEC title for the second straight year and Illinois failed to qualify as a team for the first time since 2021. Even so, the top title contenders are still tried and true. This year’s top four teams are Oklahoma, LSU, SEC Champion Florida and Big Ten Champion UCLA, all of whom will headline their respective regional locations. In an SEC dominated field, eighth-seeded Missouri drew an SEC-dominated regional, with the other three ranked squads in its bracket coming from the conference. Heading into the SEC Championships, some wondered whether Missouri would face off against a few out-of-conference competitors. At that point, a matchup with Stanford seemed likely. Had the Tigers finished at seventh, which they sat at for all but two weeks of the season, they would be headed to Baton Rouge alongside LSU, Michigan and Clemson as the other ranked teams. However, as luck would have it, Missouri will see an SEC-dominated field at a site they have already competed in once this year.
Missouri will be featured as the top-ranked team in Friday’s first session which includes Battle Line rival Arkansas, North Carolina State and Maryland. Should they place first or second, they will advance to the regional final against the top two finishing squads from the second Friday session (Oklahoma, Kentucky, Ohio State, Central Michigan, Rutgers.) On Sunday, the four remaining rosters will compete for two spots in the national final.
Below are my thoughts on the teams vying to make it past the battle in the Bluegrass State.
Session One:
No. 8 Missouri (197.178)
It cannot be overstated how important Friday’s semifinal is for the Tigers. They haven’t lost to a team ranked below them all year, but Arkansas wants its lick back after narrowly finishing behind them both at SECs and a month ago in Columbia. It will be interesting to see how the Tigers compete Friday, assuming they will also hit the mats on Sunday. The team hasn’t had a true dual-meet weekend all season, unlike other SEC squads. They have held multiple intrasquads in the days following competitions, but this will be the first time they will compete their routines twice in the span of three days.
Strongest event: Floor
At SEC Championships, four Tigers scored 9.900 in this rotation, posting a whopping 49.450 team score that sat atop the leaderboard until LSU took the event title. Juniors Kennedy Griffin and Hannah Horton have taken turns anchoring the so-called “Fab Floor,” and have only five combined scores below 9.900. Horton recently earned Co-SEC Specialist of the Year and, while not officially confirmed, her floor routine was the event considered for the honor.
Weakest event: Beam
At this point in the season, the Tigers’ hopes quite literally balance on this event. At SECs, an anchoring 9.925 score from Addison Lawrence single-handedly saved Missouri from a sub-49 event total and possibly a seventh or eighth place finish overall. With the lowest score being dropped, Missouri can afford one bad routine. It just can’t have more than that, which proved to be the case in Tulsa. After a semi-injured Amy Wier began the rotation with a sub-9 score, the following competitors plummeted their scores, and the lineup wasn’t truly recovered until the fourth spot. The dropped score is a luxury afforded to every team – a mishap by one individual shouldn’t destroy a team’s season. Missouri gymnasts need to keep that in mind when watching their teammates compete. They seem to let the bad mojo of one routine ruin the rest.
No. 9 Arkansas (197.170)
Arkansas relies very heavily on their top-end strength. It has three, sometimes four, competitors in the all-around at any given meet and contains great versatility among those athletes. The problem lies in the fact that beyond its standouts, there is little consistency up and down the lineups. This team will likely advance to the Regional Final, but will need to create more lineup stability in order to be one of the last two remaining.
Strongest event: Beam
Not many teams excel on the balance beam quite like Arkansas does. Its numbers aren’t superior, but the beam being tied for its highest rotation score at SECs shows that it is a detailed priority for this team. Highlighting the lineup is anchor (and Olympian) Joscelyn Roberson, who has recorded only three scores below 9.900 this year. She recently hit a career-high 9.975 in the final regular season meet. With there being four judges in the postseason instead of the usual two, Roberson is certainly on perfect ten watch.
Weakest event: Bars
Though not by much, the bars are definitively the Razorbacks’ biggest point of concern. They scored a 49.125 at SECs, their lowest event total. They have also recorded multiple sub-49 scores in the back half of the season. They simply can’t afford any misfires, as that could bring disaster to an already low-scoring lineup. They will need an above-average rotation to keep their hopes of advancing alive, or at least buffer the event with three other high-scoring rotations.
North Carolina State (196.452)
The Wolfpack have the potential to break 197.000, but they’ve only done so twice this year. They have some high-achieving routines, including a pair of 9.975 individual career highs, but they haven’t quite lived up to their potential. While some of the more consistent squads’ event scores throughout the year form a straight line, NC State’s look more like a can of spray paint given to a two year old.
Strongest event: Bars
The bars have the highest ceiling for this Wolfpack squad, as a 49.450 and an even more recent program-record 49.500 are possible event-winning scores. The problem lies in their ability to maintain that. They posted a 49.175 at ACC Championships, a score that will not be enough to overtake a pair of SEC opponents.
Weakest event: Beam
On March 13 against West Virginia, the Wolfpack posted a 48.750. What’s so crazy about that is they did so with no falls – just a lot of deductions from wobbles. Perhaps low start values are also an issue, as there isn’t an abundance of higher-level skills within the lineup.
Maryland (195.845)
While they had some shining moments early this season, the Terps have not been sailing strong as of late. They finished last in their Big Ten Championship Session with a score of 195.300, only recording one event score above 49.000. Their season high is 196.675, more than a tenth lower than Missouri’s season low.
Strongest event: Floor
The aforementioned “shining moments” for Maryland have happened on the floor, most notably a 49.575 event score in the team’s third meet. It’s the only rotation that averages above 49.000 and the only lineup on an upward trend. The lineup has a few gymnasts that can record 9.900s in Aine Reade and Madeline Komoroski, although the latter hasn’t hit that mark since Feb. 20.
Weakest event: Bars
An already less-than-promising lineup had plenty of blunders a few weekends ago when it almost matched the season low set at the beginning of the year. The season high score was set a week before conference champs, a mere 49.125.
Session Two:
No. 1 Oklahoma (197.980)
When Oklahoma meets other powerhouses, they don’t always come out victorious. An early-season tie to LSU and a second-place finish at SECs show that. However, when the Sooners stand alone as the “top dogs,” it’s pretty much game-over for anyone else in sight.
Strongest event: Vault
The Sooners have stood alone atop the national standings since week three in this event. While their vaults didn’t look as strong at SECs as they usually do, I have no doubt that the Sooners will bounce back.
Weakest event: Bars
Metrics technically say that this is Oklahoma’s weak spot, but as I said in my SEC preview a few weeks back, there isn’t much material to critique. Ironically, the Sooners matched a season high 49.600 at conference championships while posting their season low vault score. At regionals, “best” and “worst” should be purely subjective.
No. 16 Kentucky (196.550)
The Wildcats are a really strange and difficult group to analyze. They finished last in the SEC regular season standings but finished just behind Arkansas and Missouri at conference championships, proving that with just a few standout routines, they have the clearest upset potential. While its numbers don’t fare great in an ultra-competitive landscape, Kentucky is incredibly consistent. If you were to map out its event scores throughout the season, you would get a near-perfect line. Not to mention, being able to compete in front of their own fans should give them an added edge this weekend.
Strongest event: Vault
None of Kentucky’s events have ranked higher than its vault this season, one that currently sits at 12th in the nation. Its two highest scores have also come in the last two weeks.
Weakest event: Bars
Before SEC Championships, I predicted an individual score of 9.850 to be the ceiling. I wasn’t far off, as Ryan Noonan’s 9.875 was the top score among all Wildcat bar workers. The bars are the only apparatus that the Wildcats consistently struggle to break 9.900 on, a bad sign for their nationals aspirations.
Ohio State (196.492)
If there is any non-SEC team that can make the regional final, it’s the Ohio State Buckeyes. While their lack of consistency is worrying, being only two spots behind Kentucky gives the Buckeyes a fairly even contest for second place in Session Two. Their experience against top-tier Big Ten opponents in UCLA and Michigan and a week one matchup with Georgia should prepare them for the moment.
Strongest event: Floor
The Buckeyes’ floor rotation has put up some exciting numbers this year. As mentioned before, consistency can be an issue, but when at its best, Ohio State can hit around the 49.400 mark. Its season high, 49.525, came at the midpoint of the year. Individually speaking, JJ Coleman has been outstanding with only one score below 9.900 and a perfect ten on the year.
Weakest event: Bars
Abysmal is a harsh word, but it might be the right one for a rotation that only has four scores above 49.000 all season. The Buckeyes will undoubtedly compete well in regionals, but their success won’t be attributed to this event.
The following teams will compete in the First Round for a spot in Session Two on Thursday, March 2:
Central Michigan (195.597)
The Mid-American Conference Champion Chippewas are the only non-power conference team in the Lexington field, and they’ve got some work to do if they want to even see the mats on Friday. A conference title and a regional berth two months after recording a sub-195.000 meet score is fitting for a team whose season has been defined by ups and downs.
Strongest event: Floor
For a team that is so far down in the overall rankings, bars being at the 21 spot looks really pleasing. However, things have taken a turn for the worst, and it’s best to focus on their 35th-ranked floor rotation. They have posted scores above 49.000 in each of their last three meets, a standard practice for most power teams but an excellent momentum-builder for a mid-major squad.
Weakest event: Beam
Central Michigan began the year very stagnant on the beam, posting three straight scores of 48.425. They’ve been able to move the needle a little bit, but not quite enough for it to make an impact. There have only been a few meets throughout the year that all four events have hit around the same range. In most competitions, there has been a significant gap between the beam scores and those of the other three events.
Rutgers (195.398)
The Scarlet Knights have done a much better job than the Chippewas at mitigating their scoring ranges, but their numbers are still a bit too low for them to make a regional field without having to put in some extra effort.
Strongest event: Floor
Rutgers struggled between weeks two and five on this event, and the way they have rebounded has been impressive. Recently, it posted a season-high 49.475, only a tenth below Oklahoma’s season average. Two recent 9.925 scores from both Gabrille Dildy and Emily Leese should provide some stability for a lineup that will need to perform at its best.
Weakest event: Beam
The season high on beam for this Rutgers squad is a 49.05, and that was all the way back in early February. It has yet to break 49.000 since the 21st of the same month, putting this rotation a full nine places below its next lowest-scoring event.
Individuals
Among the ten teams vying for a spot at nationals are individual competitors who qualified for the postseason, despite their teams not making the field. Here are a few names to watch out for:
Chloe Cho – Illinois (All-Around)
WCGA Regular Season All-American First Team (Bars), Second Team (All-Around)
All-Big Ten First Team
5th-ranked Bars
8th-ranked All-Around
Nova Staruk – Bridgeport (Vault)
WCGA Regular Season All-American Second Team (Vault)
Charlie Behner – Kent State (Vault, Bars)
MAC Vault Champion
All-MAC First Team (Vault)
Ashley Szymanski – Ball State (Bars, Beam)
MAC Specialist of the Year
All-MAC First Team (Beam)
Abby Royer – Southern Connecticut State (Floor)
WCGA Regular Season All-American First Team (Floor)
All-GEC First Team (Floor)
Session One of the NCAA Gymnastics Lexington Regional begins Thursday, April 2 at 12 p.m CST.